Malik M Aslam Awan
IN 1960 Indus Water Treaty was signed between India and Pakistan. Indus Water Treaty accorded Pakistan the right on Jhelum, Chenab and Indus River and Ravi Bias, Sutlej rivers were within the access of India. Sindh Water Treaty was arrived at between Ayub Khan and Pandet Nehru. It was agreed between the two parties that once in a year there would be a meeting between both the signatories. According to experts the total cultivable area of Pakistan is 35 million acres. River Jhelum and River Chenab irrigate almost 13 million acres of adjoining areas. Kashmir is the Single line to save Pakistan economically and strategically. It is noteworthy that despite being two wars of 1965 and 1971, the Water Treaty was not violated by India but now India has started the construction of dams on River Neelam and River Chenab. In a meeting held in Delhi, India has refused to give Pakistan right to inspect the sites of construction of dams. Pakistan has warned India that Pakistan reserves the right to move international forums. According to international law to stop the water of a country has been declared as an act of war. RSS leaders and other parties have on many occasions pressed the Indian Government to cancel the Indus Water Treaty unilaterally and close water gates on Pakistan. This act of India may bring both the countries closer to war on water.
Pakistan, having the agriculture based economy, with 35 million acres as cultivable land, enjoys the privilege of having four favourable seasons suited to different crops and fruit. God Almighty had blessed the country with terrain suitable for all kinds of crops, paddy, wheat, sugarcane, maize and all kinds of fruit and to cater to these all crops water is essential and is just like blood running in human body, without blood even smallest creature cannot survive to breath on earth. Ayub Khan had the righteous sense to realize that a viable treaty regarding the distribution of water be concluded with India and after due deliberation between both the countries Indus Water Treaty came into effect with mutual consent of India and Pakistan. Ravi River has been totally ceased to flow water to Pakistan. According to reliable sources several dams have been constructed on Ravi River. India is deliberately and consciously endeavouring to make Pakistan a barren land, to weaken its economy and strategic power. Water terrorism is more dangerous than all kinds of terrorism, so far illustrated manifested, defined and practiced in human history.
Indian warlords have strongly felt that the strategic war with Pakistan may be more dangerous entailing awesome results and wholesale cataclysm for India. Sharp Indian manipulators have discarded the idea of arsenal war with Pakistan and adopted the second option, strategy to let the least drop of water flow to Pakistan. Indus Water Treaty is now being violated by India. Analysts are of the unanimous opinion that India like 1965 and 1971 is not in position to wage a war against Pakistan and there are minus chances of nuclear war between the two countries. Only some heavy or light skirmishes may take place but cannot ramify to be a big war. Indian economy is, also, no more growing to be the biggest economy of South Asia. In Gilwan, Indian Army has faced ignominy and utter defeat at the hands of Chinese Army. India claims that Ladakh and Gilgit-Baltistan are its integral part and its defeat at the hands of Chinese Army has taught it a lesson to be remembered for centuries.
Analysts are concerted in opinion that India is losing courage to invade the territory of Pakistan as it came to know in 2019 that Pakistan is a hard nut to crack and will prove an iron bait to India. To sum up, India is endeavouring hard to maintain its hegemony in South Asian region but having faced sheer humiliation at the hands of China, is in the position only to continue barking, not taking any antagonistic steps which would ultimately lead India to alarming situation, having no other option except to have apologetic behaviour. In the foregoing scenario the analysts express their wise opinion that war on water has the least chances to occur between Pakistan and India but Indian policy to stall waters of Pakistan may make the situation of the area most tense and embroiling, simmering to the state that under the aggravated situation Pakistan may resort to international forums and Pakistan’s voice may get more momentum, acceleration and vibrant to divert the attention of the international forums to the most echoed issue of water.
—The writer is a freelance columnist and independent analyst based in Lahore.
