Iqbal Khan
BRAHMA Chellaney in a 09 July piece for The Hindustan Times, captioned “China may win, without fighting” wrote: “Instead of insisting on status quo ante, India has helped create a new status quo. Beijing is smiling.” “It has changed the South China Sea’s geopolitical map without firing a shot or incurring any international costs”. Regional and global perceptions of the end state of the conflict are at great variance from the domestic Indian insight. In India an artificial “Victory Euphoria” prevails. However, South Asian, Central Asian and East Asian country are now clear that India is no match to China. It were the two US Navy aircraft carriers that did show of force by patrolling in the conflict zone and much touted Indian Navy (IN) whom the US has been projecting as provider of security net in the Indian Ocean dared not move out of its harbours. In fact IN aircraft carriers were not yet equipped with its air component as its MIG-29 K aircraft are still in Russian factories.
According to NewsX, China has issued yet another warning to India stating that “India should not misjudge the situation again like 1962”.Moreover, Eurasian Times has reported that amid heightening US-China tension, “the US wants India to ‘match its weight by actions’ in the South China Sea”. Tension between the US and China were augmented when the US sent in two aircraft carriers in the South China SEATO indicate that “it doesn’t welcome China’s belligerence in the region”.
During a National Security Adviser level meeting India has agreed to an unconditional disengagement in Ladakh on Chinese terms, whereby accepting 1959 Chinese Claim Line (CCL) as new Line of Actual Control (LAC). The new LAC would in fact be the Ceasefire Line. Retired Lieutenant General of Indian Army, H S Panag in his July 09 piece for The Print captioned “Modi, Xi are strong leaders, but for lasting peace at the LAC both need to make compromises…if India and China don’t make compromises, then a limited war is inevitable, which neither side wants”. “Modi and Xi cannot afford to lose face. It has to be a win-win situation for both the countries, and their leaders”, Panag added. Though Prime Minster Narendra Modi while riding the state media alongside select privately owned but government subsidised media is trying to portray it as a “Grand Victory”, there are credible fact narrating individuals and institutions which consider it as a total surrender. Independent analysts in India are under tremendous pressure to give up their independent but factual conclusions. With the demise of 1993 LAC, the 1993, 1996, 2005, 2012 and 2015 agreements meant for peace on that LAC have also become null and void. China has decided to go beyond even its 1960 claim line in Ladakh. Hence, the PLA will not vacate the territories it has come to occupy in Galwan, Depsang, Hot Springs and Pangong Tso.
Modi hopes to overcome the humiliation by creating a perception in India that the LAC remained inviolable, and no Indian territory has been lost to the PLA. According to Pravin Sawheny, “the Ladakh crisis has two narratives— Indian and Chinese”. Modi’s version emanated out of his two Victory speeches in which he “unmistakeably said that the battle of Galwan has been won”. With the exception of the Congress and the Communists, other political parties appear least bothered about the imbroglio. “The majority in the media is happy parroting the official line”. “Retired military officers, with a few exceptions, are cheering the government from the side-lines. Those contesting the official line are being labelled ‘anti-national’”. Modi knows that another border skirmish will not be weapons’ free since the government of India has changed the rules of engagement. Even “if one shot is fired, an escalation is assured”, which will be controlled by the PLA, being militarily stronger. “Eventually it could lead to war, bringing India face to face with reality”.
India fooled the Americans by raising China bogie while amassing Pakistan specific munitions and raising Pakistan-specific command & control and war fighting structures. No wonders when the Chinese came, Indian military was caught with his pants down, forcing their Prime Minster for asking Russia, US, Israel and France to fast-track supply of war munitions. China would certainly take note of Israel’s undue keenness by offering its own, operating, air defence system as an interim measure to fill in for the lag in arrival of Russian S-400 air defence missile system. At domestic tier it would sooner than later bring forth the truth that Nehru was Nehru, and Modi is Modi. Notwithstanding, at personal level much like Nehru, Modi will also not be able to survive the psychological impact of humiliation that struck India under his watch. And to offset this effect Modi could plan a limited war with one of its smaller neighbours. As it has tasted the response of Pakistan in Balakot fiasco, Nepal could be the most likely military target if regime change efforts do not materialise there. Notwithstanding, Pakistan should not lower its guard.
Three Divisions of Indian Army have rushed to Ladakh theatre and are counting. There have been cross theatre movement of troops as well. During the upcoming winters keeping these troops in Ladakh area without a habitat and logistics provisioning through air lift only would imply nightmarish challenges. While the PLA could swiftly amass troops at other pressure points along the LAC. Senior diplomats are suggesting the strengthening of partnerships with the Quadrilateral nations (US, Japan and Australia), France, South Korea and Taiwan. However, with India’s repeat poor performance these alliances and countries may no longer be as keen to cosy up with India.
—The writer is a freelance columnist based in Islamabad.
