Brig Naseem Akhtar Khan (R)
I am not a professional writer but have been scribbling a few articles in the newspapers on our national issues, for the past few months, highlighting some gray areas in our governance mechanism and social sector. My observations have purely been based on my experience of watching the corrupt mafias at the helms of affairs from a close quarter, for nearly three decades. With the emerging geo-political and geo-strategic turbulence in the South Asian region, intensifying with each passing day, I wonder, what will be the consequences of its fallouts on us, if we continue to handle our national affairs, the way we are doing now. Witnessing the ongoing political dramas every day, roughing out the religion, politics and patriotism, so nakedly, is nothing but an unfortunate experience. Icing on the cake is done by our TV anchors exploiting these episodes for hours, every evening, as if some heroic national services are being presented to the nation. This whole scenario may be a good laughing stock for a few but, in fact, it does reflect our indifference to the overshadowing regional and international threats to our national security.
This article, in a broader context of emerging geo-political and geo-strategic scenario in the region, is an attempt to ring the alarm bells and leave rest to the patriotic Pakistanis to ponder. South Asia located at the strategic crossroads of the Persian Gulf, Northwest Asia, Middle East and Far East, has a pivotal role to play in the region. Transforming environments in this region are gradually increasing its centrality in world affairs, particularly for the countries in South East Asia. Because of its natural legacies, and strategic location overshadowing major powers’ geo-political/geo-strategic interests in the region, Pakistan is virtually at the forefront to face the challenges that the situation presents besides some lucrative opportunities that we are being presented with. Unfortunately, some regional and extra-regional powers, instead of pursuing their interests through mutual relationships, are choosing to exploit their strategic options, negatively.
The major issues dominating the environments in the region revolve around China-Pak geo-strategic and geo-economic rapprochement and Indo-US counter responses. In addition, the world’s five nuclear states (Russia, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea) in Asia, have their own divergent strategic trajectories to follow. Formalization of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is of great geo-economic and geo-strategic significance that would provide immense opportunities to both countries. For Beijing, it would serve as an entry point to the Arabian Gulf, widening its geopolitical/economic influence in the region. For Islamabad, it will prove to be a major economic stabilization avenue, with huge strategic dividends to capitalize on. Moreover, Pakistan will be able to utilize Corridor as an anchor to eliminate threats of non-state actors and to overcome its two-frontal security dilemma. Additionally, it is likely to go a long way in stabilizing Islamabad’s internal situation and improving its external standing. Pakistan’s improved position in relation to India would assist in assertively evolving confidence-building initiatives for conflict resolution and maintain strategic stability. This massive connectivity initiative is also challenging the US global position and is likely to leave India far behind. Feeling this concern, both India and the United States are embracing more enthusiastically to contain it, and counter/counterbalance it, strategically. India feels acute sensitivity about the Chinese military strength, strategic expansion and the China-Pak strategic closeness. There are numerous other issues between these two, escalating their bilateral tension. In parallel, China and India also continue to compete for control over the Indo-Pacific transit routes.
China is a powerful barrier against India’s emergence as a regional power, which the US and India are endeavouring to neutralize by entrenching themselves in Afghanistan and retain their presence for strategic objectives. After the formalization of a broad-based strategic partnership between India and US, India has undertaken a massive military and nuclear expansion and modernization program to assume the role of a regional leader. In Northwest Asia, relationships between India, China, Iran, Russia and the US have already started moving on divergent trajectories. The diplomatic and security dimensions prevalent in the Middle East, rising tide of non-state actors, US-Iran confrontation and Russia’s resurgence efforts would further impact future contours of groupings or alliance formations.
US-Pakistan relationship has generally been narrow based; either it was containment of the communist threat or reversal of Soviet invasion of Afghanistan or, more recently, counterterrorism. Fearing the consequences of China-Pak rapprochement and Chinese rise to assuming a global role, the United States is once again, vigorously creeping closer to us with its new behaviour, conceptual responses and strategic dynamics, either to contain it, or to counter it. With new government taking over in coming months in the US, some policy changes may again be in the offing. Prima facie, the transforming geostrategic landscape of South Asia and Pakistan’s fundamental role in the transforming geostrategic trajectories – would prove to be of decisive consequence in determining the future geopolitical structure of the region. Under the transformed geo-political/geo-strategic environments, Pakistan will have to sustain politico-military flexibility, reconcile with structural dynamics of world politics/regional geostrategic environments and maintain strategic independence in the realm of inter-state relations to deal with the evolving challenges.
Our futuristic security scenario predicts three emerging security challenges for Pakistan; emergence of pre-emptive use of force from the east or the west, internal security problems aggravating and lastly, how we can deal with our fault lines i.e., religious exploitation, ethnic/economic divide and ensuring writ of the state. Threat emanating from transnational terrorism is another major security challenge for Pakistan. Our adversaries have deployed a host of undercover intelligence setups to reinforce anti-state forces in the country and create/encourage dissidents within various segments of our society. The greatest challenge that we face on the domestic front relates to the political system in Pakistan which produces the people with power to put plans and actions into effects. Most of the representatives chosen are feudalists and industrialists, making parliament a farce, with parliamentarians acting as power brokers.
The prevailing system of governance falls much short to handle this elite capture. Our education system has lost its meaning and relevance. Religious radicalization and its exploitation are another serious threat that we confront. These distressing environments have resulted in a visible divide in our social structure. We desperately need political reforms to rebuild democratic structures appropriate to our political culture, an accountability system to eradicate corruption and promotion of good governance. The government needs to attach high priority to social sector reforms, with unprecedented inputs and resources for our disconnected education system, health, and poverty alleviation. There is a need to inject a fresh wave of self-discipline and character building at national level.
— The writer is Security Management Professional, based in the UAE.
