Interestingly, the strategic importance of the CPEC has once again become a flashpoint during the most recently concluded Pak-India war, highlighting its scope, utility and multidimensional productivity for Pakistan’s socio-economic prosperity, energy and food security, agricultural cooperation and, last but not least, hydro-power generation.
It seems that India has self-coined a “New Normal,” which has schemed a “New End Game” in the region and beyond.
Unfortunately, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has become the first easy “prey” of this strategy, although the World Bank’s President Ajay Banga has reaffirmed that the Indus Agreement between Pakistan and India cannot be “suspended” unilaterally, emphasizing that any changes to the treaty require mutual consent from both nations.
Moreover, India’s conditional linkage of the restoration of IWT with the complete eradication of terrorism vividly reflects its ill designs to steal or choke the water of the western rivers.
The Pakistani government has rightly termed the move as “an act of war,” warning it could disrupt the current ceasefire and prompt a “full spectrum response,” with the IWT emerging as a new flashpoint for political gains.
Alarmingly, studies indicate that around 30 MAF of Indus River water flows unused into the sea annually, while only 65 MAF of the diverted water reaches farmlands, with 36 MAF lost due to inefficient irrigation systems—resulting in a total waste of 65 MAF and estimated economic losses of US$21 billion each year.
The government of Pakistan should include numerous new hydro-power projects in CPEC Phase-II, focusing on the accelerated completion and desilting of existing dams construction of additional large dams at the federal level through a phased program, and development of small dams, reservoirs and efficient canals at the provincial level as consensual and vital initiatives.
Furthermore, an immediate revision of CPEC Phase-II is needed to incorporate mega projects involving modern irrigation technologies, canal infrastructure development, investments in wastewater treatment and recycling as well as the adoption of nature-based systems and water conservation measures across the country.
The strategic military alliance between the US and India has so far failed to achieve its goals of strengthening their socio-economic, geopolitical, and geostrategic positions due to Pak-Sino resistance, which maintains a regional equilibrium protecting the interests of weaker South Asian nations.
The remarkable success of BRI and CPEC has challenged US-India theories of China’s economic collapse, decoupling, and overcapacity, as China’s economy has grown more developed, diversified, and resilient, effectively mitigating external shocks through sound economic and investment-friendly policies.
Additionally, China’s increasing investments in ASEAN, APEC, BRICS, SCO, BRI, and RCEP reflect its strategy to diversify exports, investments, and manufacturing channels, thus avoiding the negative impacts of the ongoing US trade and tariff war against China, its allies, the Global South, and developing countries.
In response, hawkish politicians in both the US and India have crafted a new end game centered on expanding the US military presence and imposing economic sanctions in South Asia.
The US and its regional allies in Asia Pacific have not yet achieved any substantial gains against China by establishing military bases, deploying Indian BrahMos missiles in Philippines, activation of QUAD, AUKUS, emerging military partnerships and arms supplies to Taiwan all clearly demonstrating that South China Sea and Taiwan would be next flashing points.
However, the Chinese military was restrained from any military adventure and ready for any onslaught.
The continued arrival of US and Israeli C-130s and military carriers in India signals that the conflict is far from over, with concerns that India may initiate another war after the Tiranga Yatra concludes on May 23.
The recent Taliban delegation’s visit to India during the Pak-India war should alarm policymakers in Pakistan and China.
Credible diplomatic sources warn of renewed infiltration from Afghanistan, including support and safe havens for BLA, BLF, TTP, MB, and FS, potentially destabilizing the region.
The sudden unrest linked to the so-called “Balochistan Independent State” poses a grave threat to Gwadar’s air and sea ports and key CPEC projects.
It is estimated that India’s end game consists of disintegration of Pakistan, especially Balochistan, decreasing capacity of defence forces, socio-economic instability and political chaos through terrorism and clandestine activities.
Thus immense economic stability, diversification and export oriented policies would be pursued and implemented in the country.
In summary, the writer urges Pakistan and China to revise their strategies regarding CPEC and BRI by focusing on economic security, water conservation, and the inclusion of mega hydro-power dams, green hydrogen projects, scientific canal systems, and modern irrigation technologies.
This approach aims to enhance sustainable development and resource management.
Moreover, given the new normal and end game of imperialist forces, it is crucial for both countries to prioritize deterrence through joint development of advanced military technologies such as nuclear drones, anti-stealth systems, and laser weapons.
Close collaboration in electromagnetic sciences, satellite jamming, missile technology, robotics, AI soldiering, digitalization, and modernization will further counteract the hostile narratives and actions of the US and India across South Asia, the Asia Pacific, Central Asia, and the Middle East.
Since the era of conventional war is over, both countries should reassess and adapt the nature, scope, and utility of their military cooperation accordingly.
Simultaneously, Pakistani policymakers must develop a holistic and comprehensive national media strategy to effectively counter India’s fifth-generation hybrid warfare by upholding merit and true professionalism across PEMRA, PTV, and social media platforms.
The writer recommends forming a specialized group of experts in advocacy, national narrative, marketing, and media to enhance strategic communication.
He also advocates appointing dedicated strategists—not routine ambassadorial staff—in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
Emphasizing the significance of the Bunyan al Marsoos victory, these experts should promote its benefits for military cooperation, anti-terrorism, and regional stability across Central Asian capitals.
Last but not least, the policymakers of Pakistan and China must prepare a counter- strategy in terms of further consolidation of CPEC Phase-II, green transformation, qualitative industrialization, hybrid agriculture, joint mechanism of safety & security of the Chinese investors and technicians in the CPEC projects, thorium nuclear power generation, lithium batteries, EVs and human development.
Toppers of cyber security, ICT, IT, quantum and big data of every university of Pakistan should be immediately sent to Chinese universities for learning the art of emerging Warfare Theater.
