RIZWAN GHANI
B Y adopting test, track and treat (3T) policy under effective leadership, Pakistan can still stop the unfolding Covid-19 crisis, allied economic crisis, and hidden corruption onslaught. South Korea used 3T policy successfully with no lockdown to contain the disease. We can use targeted lockdown to avoid unforeseen results. Based on South Korean testing data (503,051 tests for 51 million; 9,812 per million), two and half million tests are needed to detect the virus volcanoes (26 Feb one confirmed case; 12 April =72 days, projected active cases 100,000 or 1,388 daily). A decentralized 3T approach can make us a winner. We need to conduct two types of tests at grassroots: a) Real time PCR (rRTPCRs) tests to identify Covid-19 volcanoes to stop further infections. b) Antibody tests to detect persons who have developed coronavirus antibodies. They could be given ‘passport to work’ with precautions just as survivors of more deadly viruses including Tuberculosis, HIV etc. Time is important in terms of stopping the spread of the Covid-19. Center and provincial governments should use information available on CDC website to develop kits locally. They can use our embassies to import required material in bulk instead of waiting for the Covid-19 and antibody kits. Then they should identify health institutions with rRT-PCRs and lab staff and arrange PPE to increase coronavirus testing to meet the required number under 3T policy. A permanent solution is important because scientists have already warned that like flu, Covid-19 will be seasonal and its immunity is not permanent (What scientists know about coronavirus, April 12, 2020 the Guardian). Government needs to focus on economy also. In this regard, tax money should only be used for direct public welfare and businesses should be left to their shareholders. All subsidies, tax waivers and loans should be avoided because there are corruption scandals in the making. Accordingly, State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) new refinance scheme to help avoid Covid-19 related layoffs should also be changed and as explained by Kardar (ex-Finance Minister) workers should be paid directly. Instead, government can restart domestic consumption based economy by lowering tax rates (7%), interest rates (6%) and giving millions of loans for house building, buying plots, home appliances, computers, domestic renewable energy, value addition technology, small businesses and IT and build infrastructure (5G, hospitals, dams for agriculture, trams and trains). These steps can bring more revenue, end IMF program and avoid recession about which the World Bank has warned. In terms of corruption, there is urgent need for an inquiry about the conduct and policies of Governor State Bank (SBP) with reference to media reports of hot money scandal. The oversight setups should also be included in this inquiry for their failure to identify and block financial fraud in Governor’s case which tantamount to destroying the entire economy of the country. PM has himself talked about Rs 350bn overcharging by the IPPs, history of frauds in Stock Exchange and now SBP reflect systemic corruption at highest levels. It has resulted in increase in debt and debt servicing which has now reached record Rs 3tn. On 20 March 2020, Argentina’s $9.8bn IMF debt installment was rescheduled till end of 2021 but in Pakistan’s case it is being used to arm twist to empower representatives to prolong the program forever at the cost of country’s national interests, economy and its people. It is hoped that the matter will be investigated at the highest level to punish the culprits, end the IMF programme at the earliest and send a strong message to international donors to keep the programmes transparent and deal with countries not individuals. Without going into standoff between Finance Ministry and SBP, PM should implement orders of Quaidi-Azam who said State Bank should be kept under government’s control in national interest. The Governor State Bank should be removed and charged for incurring loss of Rs1.5tn by keeping the interest rate high, which allegedly was done to protect vested stakes. The government should scrap the 28 December presidential ordinance to end immunity and release the names of hot money beneficiaries. Permission to withdraw entire amount of hot money also contributed in latest increase in dollar price. In total, Governor State Bank’s policies alone incurred Rs1.66 trillion to national exchequer bigger than Rs1.2tn Covid-19 package. PM should clarify why he failed to act on media reports warning about impending flight of hot money and its adverse effects on the economy exposing poorest of the poor to abject poverty. The Supreme Court should play its role in this matter to help end white-collar crime, ensure that government orders an inquiry on actions of SBP, assign responsibility for the losses, ordinance, presents a mechanism to the court to recover the looted money and bring culprits to book. The Supreme Court should take public into confidence as to why judiciary failed to stop a presidential ordinance that cost the country a fortune as part of its constitutional obligation of judicial oversight. Park, South Korea’s President, is in jail for corruption, it is time corruption is punished in Pakistan also. —The writer is senior political analyst based in Islamabad.
