Mohammad Jamil
TEN countries with the highest population in the world are China, India, United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia and Mexico; and Pakistan stands at number 5 with 220.8 million people. Pakistan population annual growth rate of 2.1% is higher as compared with other countries of the region, and this gigantic spread of population not only leading to scarcity of resources, but also threatening the health of mother and child. Pakistan faces many challenges, and one of the challenges is to control the birth rate, as annual growth of 2.1 per cent and annual fertility rate of 3.6 children per couple makes it among the fastest growing countries, which is higher than other countries of the region except Afghanistan. With the annual fertility rate of 3.6 percent population, Pakistan’s population would double by 2040 if effective measures are not taken to control the population growth.
According to the 2020 World Population Data Sheet released by the US Population Reference Bureau, the whole South Asian region stands out with alarming contribution making it among the fastest growing regions in the world. Afghanistan’s growth rate is 4.5 per cent per couple, which is even faster than Pakistan. The government as well as the public needs to take the population matter seriously and bring the annual population growth rate down to less than two per cent a year. It is too well known that because of crowded conditions of life and acute shortage of resources, signs of stress and tension become evident, and in turn lead to abnormal behaviour patterns. According to sociologists, murders, crimes and acts of terrorism are due to inadequate resources, unemployment, poverty and ,of course, unfair and unjust economic system which should be replaced with equitable socio-economic system.
There is no denying that with better management, fertility of soil can be maintained and improved which could help match requirements of food for quite some time. But there is a limit, as ‘land’ is a critical factor, which cannot be increased once all cultivable land is brought under the plough. In this backdrop, the necessity for human numbers to conform to the environment cannot be overemphasized. If numbers become too great, obviously there will not be enough food for them. Moreover, disposal of wastes also poses a serious problem in the form of pollution which could result in epidemics. The numbers then would inevitably come to be controlled in nature’s way of removing the excess. According to one survey ten per cent of the world population including the US and the European countries suffers from mental defect ranging from idiocy and raving madness to loss of mental equilibrium.
The incidence is more in the developing countries, as medical science has revealed that if during pregnancy would-be mothers do not take adequate quantity of proteins, the brains of their children would not grow to the normal size; hence low intelligence and low IQ. Malthus had reckoned that population increases in geometric progression whereas resources increase in arithmetical progression; hence more resources are required for the growing population. Anyhow, population outstripping resources could pose a serious challenge to the world. If numbers become too great, obviously there will not be enough food for them resulting in malnutrition, hunger and disease. In countries like Pakistan, the situation is alarming as it has not been providing adequate resources for education, health and other services. The necessity of human numbers to conform to the environment, and how this may be achieved, has been argued since Malthus propounded his theory.
Historical evidence suggests that human population numbers had been subject to cyclic variations as a result of boom, gloom and doom. First half of the twentieth century had recorded great prosperity and amelioration of living conditions, but at the same time saw savage wars that limited human numbers nature’s way. However, the continuing high population growth rate in Pakistan is a major national concern and strain on national resources. In Pakistan, social indicators with regard to human resource development vis-a-vis health care, education, level of employment, income distribution and skill formation lag behind other countries of the region. Of course, the dismal economic situation is a major challenge for Pakistan; and if urgent steps are not taken to address the situation, Pakistan can default. Certainly, the time has come when the political hierarchies ruling at the centre and in the provinces must give a penetrating look to their act.
The ruling and opposition parties instead of indulging in internecine conflicts should focus on challenges facing the country. During early 1950s, eminent philosopher Bertrand Russel in an essay titled ‘The future of mankind’ had written that before the end of twentieth century, unless something quite unforeseeable occurred, one of three possibilities would have realized. The first one was the end of human life or all life on the planet as a result of war, and then as a consequence hunger, starvation and disease. The second was reversion to barbarism in view of the first one, and third one was unification of the world under a single government, possessing a monopoly of all the major weapons of war. But he could not visualize that with a dozen states having nuclear devices and delivery system, the third possibility can be ruled out. Therefore, efforts should be made to avert the war; and in this regard population growth must be checked, and the existing world order should be replaced with a just economic order. At the same time, it is imperative to limit human numbers in a planned way, otherwise the nature would limit in its own way. In the past, pandemics and the wars limited population growth in nature’s way.
—The writer is a senior journalist based in Lahore.