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Biden’s India visit cancellation: Geostrategic ripples

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IN the backdrop of the visit of Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, to the US, there have been positive developments. The US has reaffirmed Pakistan’s special ally status. Biden has rightly cancelled his upcoming India visit over an alleged plot to kill an activist. It is a blow to Modi, who was trying to showcase growing ties between the countries and bolster his image ahead of elections in May 2024 (Bloomberg). The 2024 Quad Summit in Delhi will not be held. India’s SC upheld Modi’s scrapping of Kashmir’s autonomy during the COAS visit, which has also backfired. In the wake of high competition in the global south, the message from Washington is clear. India must make a choice: to stand with the UN Resolutions on Kashmir or remain isolated in the region because Islamabad has linked the resumption of formal dialogue to changes in India’s Kashmir policy. It will not accept any other option. Experts have warned that the court’s decision quells chances of resumption of India-Pakistan dialogue (India SC verdict on Kashmir alters regional dynamics, 12 Dec 2023, the Dawn).

On the security redlines of Pakistan, Islamabad has a wide spectrum of choices of its own. Diplomacy is the best way forward rather than resorting to the use of force to stop the repeat of the tragic loss of life in the Dera Ismail Khan attack. The timing of the attack shows it was a trap for vested stakes. Based on the history of development in the West, Pakistan can work out its differences with Afghanistan by offering a broad-based practical policy and support instead of relying just on counterterrorism measures. In this regard, the following steps can help bring long-term peace and prosperity for Pakistan, Afghanistan and all other stakeholders. After WW-II, America helped Europe with the Economic Recovery Act (Marshall Plan) to rebuild its war-torn regions, remove trade barriers, modernize industry, improve European prosperity, economic integration, adoption of modern business procedures and prevent wars in Europe. The Marshall Plan aid was divided among the participant states roughly on a per capita basis.

America was built with the help of 16 cantonments. Sixteen military teams of 15-20 personnel, mostly headed by Lt. Colonels comprising experts from technical arms including engineers, worked with local civilians including contractors, technicians and workers to build the infrastructure for the entire country. It was their honesty, commitment and hard work that laid the foundation for America to become an economic power. When the US Congress decided to enter WW-1 on 7 April 1917, the number of cantonments was doubled to 32 to raise and train one million soldiers from one lakh in no time (Selective Service Act May 1917). Then Roosevelt signed the Servicemen’s Readjustment Act of 1944 (GI Bill of Rights) to provide millions of war veterans with funds for college education, unemployment insurance, housing and job finding assistance (GI Bill Wikipedia). Today, the Montgomery GI Bill-Active Duty allows serving personnel to pay for education and training (MGIB-AD).

The GI Bill was supported by many education bills, including the Morrill Land-Grants Act, Agriculture College Act, Farm bills, banking reforms, including the Banking Act of 1933 and Bank Secrecy Act (against money laundering and all other financial corruptions), and Homestead Law for national development with the help of higher education, research, professional colleges, technical and vocational training, academies and tuition centres in the public and private sector. These policy measures gave average Americans a stake in the country’s future, a reason to work and an incentive for winning their share in national prosperity. Until 1979, American governments printed money to invest in the future of their people. Eisenhower and Roosevelt imposed 91% and 90% taxes to fund the American Dream. Governments were accountable to their country by fulfilling all the requirements, including social mobility, the cost of living, the economy, businesses, pensions, food and water security and defence. America’s total debt in 1979 was $850 billion even after fighting the civil war, two world wars, and facing the 1929 recession.

Afghanistan should learn from the West. Many EU member states have historical differences, but they are not fighting with each other. They are, in fact, trying to stop the Ukraine war. All stakeholders are calling for the use of diplomacy to end another forever war. They are focused on the economy and the cost of living crisis. The diplomatic, economic and energy fallout of the Ukraine war has shown the need for peaceful coexistence and the futility of failed policies. Like cricket, Pakistan and Afghanistan can always share a glorious future. The history of economic development in the West and infrastructure development projects in the global south offer a win-win situation for both countries. Afghan leadership should embrace these peaceful developments to help ordinary citizens realize their Afghan dream by building Afghanistan instead of other countries where they pay taxes and generate revenue. The Army Chief’s US visit is a positive development. It will allow Pakistan to play a strong role in the region. There is a need for clear nation-building policies, legislation, no corruption and the rule of law. In Trump’s Afghan Legacy, the West was warned about India four years ago. There should be peace and prosperity in the Pak-Afghan region. Biden has sent the right message to Modi to stop India from terrorism, false propaganda and defaming other countries, including Pakistan.

—The writer is senior political analyst based in Islamabad.

Email: [email protected]

views expressed are writer’s own.

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