MY first article on attack on tourists in Pahalgam’s Basiran Valley in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (IIOJ&K) was published on April 22, 2025.
The article basically aimed to present the on-ground realities behind the incident to both domestic and international audiences, particularly those unfamiliar with the complexities of Indo-Pak relations and the disputed status of Jammu and Kashmir.
These realities are often misrepresented by fabricated Indian narratives.
The 2020 EU Disinfo Lab report on ‘Indian Chronicles’ is a classical exposure of a 15-year disinformation campaign promoting Indian geopolitical interests at the EU and UN.
An equally effective spread of well-placed agents of influence in the US also remains active to supplement the efforts.
Indo-Pak escalation as the aftermath of this incident, brief yet intense, has left many questioning its cause, rapid progression, sudden de-escalation and future implications.
Though I am not a strategist, as a former intelligence operative who had close engagements with our Indian counterparts for decades and some very fruitful international exposures to strategic and security manoeuvrings, I felt compelled to share my perspective on these turbulent days.
Indian policy always remains employment of long-term strategic pressure against Pakistan and sometimes to serve its domestic problems, through random acts of aggression.
Its goal is to gradually weaken Pakistan economically, diplomatically and psychologically through low-cost tactics such as water control, trade disruptions, border skirmishes and disinformation, while simultaneously shaping a global narrative to portray Pakistan as the aggressor.
My first article revisited key events from the past three decades that led to serious Indo-Pak standoffs, framing them as grand narratives to better understand present dynamics.
The Pahalgam incident and its aftermath once again brought India and Pakistan at each other’s throats.
The symbolic selection of missile targets by Indians, tied to past events, also signals that AJK remains a clear focus on their agenda.
What India probably miscalculated this time was that the world in 2025 looks very different than it did before.
India launched a major military campaign, officially saying it was to target terrorist bases in Pakistan.
However, the real aim was to expose Pakistan’s military posture, pressure it into following India’s strategic pursuits and show its dominance in the region.
The operation involved the use of surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles, as well as Israeli-origin loitering munitions targeting civilian areas in Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) and near the international border.
Pakistan responded with a precise and calculated counter-offensive, striking key Indian military targets.
It also demonstrated unexpected superiority in Electronic and Cyber Warfare.
At the end, the contest clearly went in favour of Pakistan’s defence forces.
Internationally, India miscalculated the situation, assuming that the United States and other major powers would refrain from engaging in new foreign conflicts due to their preoccupation with existing global challenges.
The credibility of multilateral institutions like the United Nations appeared diminished, further reducing possibility of international intervention.
As the US-India relations had strengthened over a period of time, Washington’s ties with Islamabad were perceived to be weakening, especially as China emerged as Pakistan’s principal strategic partner.
Consequently, international mediation that once seen as an effective tool was now seen increasingly irrelevant from India’s perspective.
Israel’s strong response in Gaza, with little opposition from any of the international players, reinforced New Delhi’s belief that no major power would stop it from taking actions to boost its regional dominance.
Contrary to India’s expectations, the US pushed both sides to de-escalate tensions.
The US-Pakistan relations had significantly improved during Trump’s second term, with Washington viewing Islamabad as a key player in the evolving regional security landscape.
Meanwhile, credible sources suggest India’s reliability as the sole regional security provider has been undermined due to its double gaming with some other regional players, weakening its position as a counterbalance to China.
The Pakistani defence forces fulfilled their core duty with discipline, resolve and professionalism in the face of external threat.
The nation stood firmly behind them, offering full and unconditional support.
At a time when concerns about political instability and civil-military relations were high, both at home and abroad, their performance reaffirmed national unity and confidence.
All eyes, domestic and internationally, were on the army leadership, which speaks volumes.
The emerging scenario has threatened both countries and further complicated South Asia’s shifting strategic landscape, shaped by changing security dynamics and alliances.
However, the US-sponsored ceasefire and dialogue at a neutral venue could offer a vital opportunity to resolve key disputes and prompt, much-needed introspection and reforms.
The most critical issue that must be addressed is ensuring that such activities are not repeated.
Furthermore, there should be clear and effective modus operandi in place to deal with any recurrence.
While Kashmir remains a central point of contention between the two countries, India’s alleged involvement in fuelling terrorism and separatist movements in Baluchistan and the KP poses an equally serious threat.
This strategy, reportedly backed by some other foreign entities, underscores the need for comprehensive investigation and counter measures.
Additionally, the RAW-BLA and RAW-TPP nexus must be thoroughly examined and dismantled to ensure lasting regional stability.
We must safeguard our economy with the same vigilance we apply to defending our borders.
Indian strategy must be exposed on international platforms and we must resist the trap of responding on their terms.
The path forward demands an approach that is symmetrical, strategic and, above all, sustainable.
Amid speculations of a changing world order, Pakistan is seen as a key regional player in the evolving strategic landscape.
However, internal stability is crucial to realizing this potential.
Our persistent political fragility remains the core challenge.
Despite having one of the region’s strongest defence forces, the absence of a stable political system aligned with our societal realities keeps us vulnerable.
I say this based on firsthand experience gained over more than two decades of handling security and counterintelligence at national, regional and international levels during one of the most critical periods in our history.
—The writer is Security Professional, entrepreneur and author, based in Dubai, UAE.
