ISLAMABAD – Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has unveiled that double digital inflation of 10.9 percent returned to Pakistan, the highest level in nearly two years, amid global oil market volatility and higher domestic fuel levies.
The official data showed that the prices of energy, transport and essential food items increased.
PBS) reported that consumer price inflation returned to double digits for the first time since July 2024, when tax adjustments were introduced under the ongoing IMF-supported economic programme.
The latest surge reflects widespread price pressures across both urban and rural areas, with nearly all major commodity groups affected by rising petroleum costs, which have a cascading effect on transportation and food supply chains.
April’s reading also exceeded government projections, which had estimated inflation would remain below 9%. The Finance Ministry had earlier forecast a maximum inflation level of 9% for the month.
Global oil prices have remained elevated in recent months due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude reportedly increasing sharply since late February. Pakistan, instead of absorbing the impact, has passed on the full international price effect to consumers while also increasing petroleum levies, further accelerating domestic inflation.
According to PBS, motor fuels—despite having a relatively small weight in the CPI basket—rose by 40% year-on-year in April. High-speed diesel saw an even sharper increase of 93%, placing additional pressure on transport and agricultural costs.
The government recently reintroduced a levy of Rs28.69 per litre on diesel, pushing its retail price to around Rs400 per litre. Meanwhile, petrol continues to be taxed at over Rs100 per litre, exceeding earlier agreed limits and contributing to sustained high fuel costs.
Electricity tariffs increased by 33%, while liquefied petroleum-related prices surged by 63%, further intensifying household energy expenses.
Food inflation also accelerated, with urban food prices rising by 6.9% and rural areas recording a 7.3% increase. Key commodities witnessed significant spikes, including tomatoes (up 75%), onions (42%), and wheat (around 40%). Wheat flour prices jumped by more than 30%, driven largely by higher transportation costs.
Transport services registered a 38% rise in costs, pushing the overall transport group inflation to 30%. Meanwhile, the housing, water, electricity, and gas category recorded a 17% annual increase.
Core inflation excluding food and energy also remained elevated, reaching 8% in urban areas and 8.5% in rural regions.
For the current fiscal year, the government has set an inflation target of 7.5%. However, despite an average inflation rate of 6.2% during the first eight months, officials now acknowledge that the target may be missed due to continued fuel price pressures.
To cushion the impact on low-income households, the IMF has urged an expansion of social protection programmes, including an increase in cash assistance under the Benazir Income Support Programme, which is expected to cover up to 10.2 million beneficiaries in the coming months.
