TODAY, I want to present an analysis in my column on whether Balochistan is a victim of geopolitical politics or social and economic deprivations. In Balochistan, various terrorist groups are active under the guise of deprivations, led by external adversarial forces benefiting from the region’s resources. However, not every Baloch who complains about deprivations and backwardness is armed. These terrorists, who refer to themselves as Baloch nationalists, target infrastructure, the armed forces, and civilian populations. I believe that in this entire context, the unfair use of natural resources, the issue of missing persons and low human development cannot be overlooked. Meanwhile, these nationalists claim that the federal government is exploiting Balochistan’s natural resources, such as Saindak, Reko Diq and Sui, without restraint. Let us explore how social and economic challenges are being exploited to justify militancy.
Sindak is operated under a lease agreement between China’s Metrological Construction Company (MCC) and Pakistan’s Sindak Metals Limited (SML). According to the lease agreement of 2022-37, the net profit is distributed as 47% for MCC, 37% for SML and 16% for Balochistan. Furthermore, Balochistan receives 6.5% of the sales value as royalty and 6.5% of the net profit as corporate social responsibility (CSR). On the other hand, in the Reko Diq gold and copper mine, currently 50% is held by Barrick Gold Corporation, 25% by federal entities and 25% by Balochistan. The province receives 25% of the profit from Reko Diq, which includes only 15% provincial investment in addition to local employment.
Pakistan’s gas supply comes from Sindh (50%), Balochistan (15%), Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (10%), Punjab (2%) and imported regasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) (23%). Balochistan’s natural gas contributes 15% to the country’s national gas, while provincial consumption is only 5%. The remaining 10% of the natural gas is sold to other provinces. Thus, Balochistan is receiving its rightful economic profit from provincial natural resources. After the 18th Amendment, Balochistan has complete control over all natural resources except oil and gas; therefore, the exploitation of Balochistan’s natural resources by the federal government is nothing more than propaganda.
Regarding the self-made narrative of missing persons, the so-called Baloch nationalists claim that law enforcement agencies are allegedly involved in enforced disappearances. However, the 2011 Inquiry Commission’s report contradicts this, revealing that out of 2,752 individuals, 2,284 have returned, leaving only 468 still missing as of January 2024. Additionally, terrorists, now included in the list of missing persons, have been killed in attacks. For example, Tayyib Baloch, missing in April 2024, was involved in a suicide attack in August 2024. Similarly, Kareem Jan and Abdul Wadood Stakzai were linked to attacks in Gwadar and Mach. Saleem Baloch was killed during the Ziarat operation in 2022. This narrative is often used to defame national security institutions.
Balochistan is facing challenges in health, education and economic development, and the federal government has initiated numerous development projects over the past two decades to address these issues. The share of Balochistan in the 2010 NFC Award increased from 5.11% to 9.09%. This funding has led to the development of education and health facilities and the construction of highways in Balochistan. However, the Human Development Index (HDI) of Balochistan remains the lowest among the four provinces. Over the past two and a half decades, Balochistan’s human development score has gradually increased to 0.473. Although development indicators in Balochistan are showing positive trends, the roots of instability and unrest are still present.
Recently, especially after the development of the Gwadar Port and CPEC, there has been an increase in incidents of terrorism. This suggests that socio-economic issues cannot solely be attributed as causes of terrorism. The primary target of the terrorists is CPEC. The success of the development projects under CPEC is directly linked to peace and stability in Balochistan. Data indicates that the number of fatalities due to terrorist activities has doubled since the initiation of CPEC. The sole aim is to deprive the general Baloch population of the economic benefits of CPEC and to entangle the government in security issues. Historically, unrest in Balochistan was concentrated around the northern parts of the province, particularly in Dera Bugti and Kohlu. However, after CPEC, there has been a decrease in terrorism-related incidents in Dera Bugti and its surroundings, whereas such incidents have increased in Gwadar and Khuzdar.
The shift of terrorism from the north to the south of the province, along the route of CPEC, clearly indicates changing motivations behind the conflict. This demonstrates that the narrative of these militants regarding the unfair use of natural resources, missing persons and low human development does not reflect the underlying factors driving terrorism in Balochistan. If it were so, there should have been a decrease in terrorism alongside the implementation of development packages and improvements in HDI. This implies that eradicating CPEC is one of the fundamental objectives of these terrorist groups.
This instability prevents Balochistan from fully utilizing its resources and provides strategic advantages to external elements like the US and India. For the US, an unstable Balochistan poses an obstacle to the successful completion of CPEC and challenges the shared geopolitical interests of Pakistan and China. Supporting terrorist groups to counter Pakistan and China aligns with India’s geopolitical interests. The arrest of RAW agent and Indian Navy officer Kulbhushan Jadhav highlights that Balochistan has become a battleground for geopolitical competition.
The unrest in Balochistan serves the strategic interests of external powers aiming to undermine China and CPEC. Overall, narratives of grievances function as a facet of geopolitical competition in Balochistan. Nationalist narratives, supported by hostile forces, exaggerate the situation through social media and other outlets, inciting public sentiment against national security institutions. It is also important to acknowledge that relatively low human development is a significant issue that needs attention. Therefore, a solid strategy is required to address geopolitical issues at a strategic level, along with a comprehensive approach to socio-economic development at an operational level. Thus, it has been proven that the slogan of Baloch deprivation is being misused. Although there have been some shortcomings and deficiencies in our national and political leadership and the state regarding Balochistan, the relevant institutions are working to rectify them.
—The writer is Chairman, Tehrik Jawanan Pakistan.
