Dost Muhammad Barrech
QUADRILATERAL Security Dialogue or Quad a strategic formal meeting of so-called democracies that includes the US, India, Japan and Australia was held on October 06, 2020 in Tokyo. The meeting was attributed to discuss the ongoing Asia-Pacific regional security issues. Michael Pompeo, US Secretary of State, in his opening remarks in the meeting unequivocally said that the US is committed to protecting precious freedom and the sovereignty of the diverse nations of the region. He further reiterated that “as partner in this Quad, it is more critical now than ever that we collaborate to protect and partner from CCP’s exploitation. Pompeo in forum constantly rubbished China and the Chinese Communist Party.
The forum ostensibly is being used by the US to counter Chinese growing influence in Asia-Pacific. Making Asia-Pacific the region well-known for world’s trade activities as a battlefield to counter China would prove counterproductive for the US. It is a fait accompli; American politicians are addicted to wars, obsessed with realist school of thoughts seeing international politics merely in realist prism. Though realism is conceived to be the dominant theory of international politics, observing every international issue in the realm of realism, by and large, would prove detrimental for international politics. The US needs to see the region in context of theory of complex interdependence. The theory negates a vague notion of realism to maximize more power and underscore the value of transnational actors, accentuating the role of international regime and reckons that international organizations are becoming significant with every passing year. As a result, the role of trade gets paramount importance in realm of foreign policy. The pursuers of complex interdependence theory wish to de-escalate anarchy through cooperation. The theory maintains that in an anarchic environment growing ties among states will pave the way for enhancement of economic interdependence, resulting in mutually dependent vulnerable to each other actions. Brining home complex interdependence theory by the US policy makers is prerequisite in the era of globalization. China is believed to be espousing complex interdependence theory in letter and spirit in order to mitigate anarchy in Asia-Pacific region. It is the leading trading partner of the US; both states have nearly $636 billion annual trade. Meanwhile, China till 2018 remained a top trading partner of India, currently, is second largest trading partner of India after the US, having annual trade of approximately $85billion. Japan has 1500 years economic ties and political connections with China. In 2018 Japanese foreign direct investment in China remained $124 billion and more than 23,000 Japanese companies have currently been working in China.
Japan, currently, is the third largest trading partner of China; trade between them in the last 45 years has rapidly increased from $1 billion to $317 billion. In this regard, a renowned East Asia expert, Ezra Vogel argues, “If the relationship between China and the United States, the world’s two largest economies, is the most important relationship in the world, then arguably the second most important relationship is that between China … and its neighbour, Japan, the third largest economy.” China is also a leading trade partner of Australia; their bilateral trade in 2019 culminated to $252 billion. Most considerably, China in 2019 became sixth-largest foreign direct investor in Australia with an investment of $46 billion. China so far has imported $ 93.6 billion of gas, ore and coal from Australia and contribution of Chinese students studying in Australian universities has reached $ 12 billion. Chinese tourists who pay visits to Australia also annually contribute nearly $ 13 billion to Australian economy. However, a radical change has been witnessed in perception of Southeast Asian countries about China, conceiving it from “China threat” to a “friendly elephant”. Southeast Asian States in the last thirty years were overlooked by the US, left vacuum for China to expedite its clout by building up its diplomatic, economic and cultural influence across the region. China has also bolstered its ethnic ties with most Southeast Asian countries.
At the critical juncture, Southeast Asian countries are disinterested in becoming embroiled in the US and China rivalry nor do they want to be used cannon fodder as part of prevailing great power competition rather they wish to have continued economic ties with China. Asia-Pacific region is likely to contribute 60% of global growth by 2030. Orchestration of alliances and holding of Quad meetings alluding to countering China would certainly have long-lasting ramifications for world’s economy. Cold war mentality of the US needs to be eschewed; it is a globalised world, an era of economic interdependence and win-win situation. Converting Asia-Pacific region being considered an engine of world’s economy into battleground of great power competition serves neither interest of the US nor China. Entanglement of India, Japan and Australia by the US in its competition with China would prove suicidal for aforementioned countries. To bear in mind, all four countries of Quad are economically more dependant on China and China has lesser economic dependence on them; containment of China, resultantly, would cause more damage to them. India, Japan and Australia ought to inculcate an adage of Henry Kissinger who rightly says that “to be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal”. In short, the US in its great power competition with China appears to be making India, Japan and Australia scapegoats.
— The writer works at the Institute of Strategic Studies, a think-tank based in Islamabad.
