KARACHI – Pakistan produces some of the most talented young professionals in the region. It also exports most of them. That contradiction sits at the heart of every budget Pakistan has presented in the last decade, and the Rs. 17.1 trillion blueprint due on June 12 is no different. It asks the most capable, most documented, most compliant citizens to fund a system that keeps pushing them toward the exit.
Before Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb even stands up in Parliament, the broad parameters of this budget have already been settled in Geneva. Pakistan’s 37-month IMF Extended Fund Facility, approved in September 2024, requires a primary surplus of 2.0 percent of GDP in FY27, up from 1.6 percent in FY26. That single number explains everything that follows. The government cannot spend freely on salaries, development, or social protection without first ensuring that target is met. Every rupee of new spending must be matched by cutting something else or raising more revenue somewhere and there lies the trap Pakistan has been stuck in for years.
Muhammad Burhan Mirza, entrepreneur, and co-founder of The Coach360 and Skills360, has been direct about what this pattern communicates to Pakistan’s most capable citizens. Speaking in commentary on last year’s budget, a pattern he says has carried forward unchanged, Mirza said, “This budget sends a message that the digital economy is not a priority. Our youth, skilled, ambitious, and already operating on global platforms, need support, not roadblocks. Cutting development funds while taxing their income will only accelerate brain drain.”
He further added, “What we’re seeing now is a push factor. Talented professionals are losing faith in local opportunities. If we want to retain them, we need policy consistency and incentives, not short-term fixes and extra tax burdens.”
The salaried class will again be the first topic of the Finance Minister’s speech and the last group to actually benefit. This cohort contributes over 50% of the direct tax revenue, paid over Rs. 425 billion in income tax in the first nine months of FY26 alone, and pays at structurally higher rates than exports, retailers, and large landowners. Further income tax slab reductions are reportedly under negotiations with the IMF for FY27, and they are welcome but income tax relief means little when the petroleum levy’s pre-committed doubling from Rs. 2.5 to Rs. 5 per litre on petrol and diesel is quietly working in the opposite direction, is raising transport and logistics costs across every supply chain in the country.
Fatima Asad Saeed, CEO of Abacus and a prominent voice at the UMT Budget Summit 2026-27, stressed that budget planning must protect the interests of low- and middle-income groups, and that economic stability and investment-friendly policies must go hand in hand with protecting those already in the tax net. It is sound advice that has been given at every budget summit for the past decade. The question is whether anyone is listening.
The 0.25 percent Final Tax Rate for PSEB-registered IT exporters under Section 154A of the Income Tax Ordinance is scheduled to expire in June 2026. If this budget does not extend it, Pakistan’s most competitive sector loses its single most impactful fiscal incentive overnight. P@SHA Chairman Sajjad Syed has put the investor anxiety plainly: “Every serious investor asks the same two questions: What will my tax exposure be, and will the rules change after I invest?” A budget that lets this exemption lapse will answer both questions in the worst possible way.
Mirza, who has invested in over 15 Pakistani startups with a combined market cap exceeding $100 million, has repeatedly warned about the long-term cost of this policy instability. “If we continue on this path, we risk not only losing our competitive edge but also the trust of international investors who are crucial for our tech sector’s expansion,” he said. No investor, local or foreign, commits capital in a country where tax laws shift every twelve months. India’s tech industry exported $224 billion in FY2024-25. Pakistan’s IT sector remains a fraction of that. The gap is not talent. The gap is policy.
There are some bright spots worth acknowledging. The Benazir Income Support Programme, which received Rs. 716 billion in FY26, is expected to expand further, with stipends potentially rising toward Rs. 18,000 per family. The IMF actively encourages this, and rightly so. As energy tariffs move toward cost-recovery pricing, BISP becomes the only real buffer between the poorest households and unaffordable utility bills. Meanwhile, the IT Ministry, after having its budget slashed by over 40 percent in FY25-26, has proposed a development allocation of Rs. 71.84 billion for the coming year. The telecom sector is pushing for removal of customs duties on 5G equipment and fibre optic cables, a move that could unlock an estimated $12 billion in new investment. These are the right conversations.
The common man is not asking for a miracle. He is asking for a budget that does not treat his salary as a government reserve fund while everyone else walks free.That is not too much to ask. It has just never been delivered.
