ISLAMABAD – A new question is emerging around Makkah Defence Alliance, why is Russia so keen to see Tehran join the pact?
The possibility gained fresh attention after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggested that Iran could join the alliance in the future, a move that could dramatically reshape emerging regional security landscape.
Speaking at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Lavrov said it was time to organise cooperation among countries with the help of Riyadh, Türkiye and Pakistan, describing the three countries as having a concept for collective security and defence cooperation.
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye signed the defence agreement on August 7, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries would be treated as an attack against all three. The three governments repeatedly stressed that the pact is not directed against any particular country and that its doors could remain open to other regional states.
Lavrov seized on that opening. He said the agreement could eventually accommodate countries beyond the Gulf, including Egypt, and added that conditions could potentially be developed for Iran to become part of the process.
For Moscow, that would be more than simply another country joining a defence pact. Lavrov said Iranian participation would represent a practical step towards a regional security concept that Russia has been advocating for more than two decades.
Moscow long pushed idea that Middle Eastern countries should develop their own regional security mechanism rather than relying primarily on the US. According to regional security expert Dr Khurram Iqbal, Moscow’s core interest is in encouraging a security structure that reduces America’s role as the region’s dominant security provider.
The calculation is straightforward as the weaker Washington’s position as the sole security guarantor becomes, the greater the room for Russia and China to expand their political and diplomatic influence. A broader alliance involving Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, Iran and potentially other countries could therefore create an entirely new regional security architecture. But there is one enormous obstacle, Iran and Saudi Arabia still have serious trust issues.
Experts said Iran’s immediate entry into the alliance is unlikely as a functioning defence alliance requires military cooperation, intelligence sharing and, above all, mutual trust and that level of trust does not yet exist between Riyadh and Tehran.
As long as Iranian-backed groups remain active in Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq, Saudi Arabia would be reluctant to bring Tehran into a collective security arrangement. The timing makes the issue even more complicated.
The possibility of Iranian membership is being discussed while Iran-backed Houthis carried out drone and missile attacks targeting Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities have said attacks on civilian and economic facilities injured 73 civilians, including women and children.
Tehran, however, has not completely shut the door. On August 22, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Iran could become part of the Mecca framework, but on its own terms. Iran should be recognised as a co-founder and should have a role in preparing the agreement’s foundational documents.
He also argued that Iran and Egypt could not simply be absent from such a regional security arrangement and that their participation should come as founding members whose ideas are incorporated into the agreement.
That position could create another major hurdle. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye established the alliance first. Iran, meanwhile, appears to want a role in shaping the architecture itself rather than simply joining an already-established framework.
Another problem could emerge from within Iran itself. Some hardline Iranian circles reportedly view the Mecca Agreement as an exclusively Sunni bloc, making immediate Iranian participation difficult. Yet there are also shared strategic concerns.
Iran, Pakistan, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia all have concerns about Israel’s expanding regional role, although they do not necessarily agree on how that challenge should be confronted. This means that common concerns could potentially bring them closer, but political and ideological differences could just as easily keep them apart.
In reality, Makkah Agreement is not purely religious alliance but a regional security framework, and its future could involve countries such as Iran, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and the Gulf states, with the possibility of further expansion. The agreement could remain largely symbolic unless Iran eventually becomes part of it.
That would transform the alliance from a three-country defence arrangement into a much broader regional security mechanism.
For Russia and China, such an expansion could have major strategic implications. A regional security architecture led by Middle Eastern and Muslim-majority states could reduce dependence on Western security guarantees and create more space for Moscow and Beijing to deepen their diplomatic and strategic relationships across the region.
Lavrov’s comments came just one day before Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan met him in Moscow. According to the Saudi Press Agency, the two discussed regional and international developments as well as efforts to reduce tensions and de-escalate conflicts.
But the official account did not reveal whether Iran’s possible membership in the Mecca Defence Alliance was discussed. That silence leaves one of the biggest questions unanswered.
Russia is clearly signalling that it sees Makkah pact a potentially important building block for a new Middle Eastern security system. Tehran has shown conditional openness. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye have left the door open to additional members.
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