ON 28 February 2026, the USA in tandem with Israel launched its ferocious air assault on Iran. According to Donald Trump this attack was supposed to be a walk in the park and it was presumed that Iran will surrender unconditionally in a few weeks and this campaign will just be an excursion for the US. What was supposed to be a very short war is now in its seventh month and still Iran stands proud and defiant with no signs of the war ending. This war has put the world economy in danger with severe disruption of oil supplies effecting the economies of the third world Asian countries in a big way.
There are no two opinions about the fact that this conflict has severely damaged and dented the super power image of the United States. The American media has raised some serious questions about the depleted stockpiles of American weapons and it has been reported that the US is now out of its precision missile strike force and more than half of its tomahawk missiles have been used in this war with not much success to show for. It goes without saying that the global clout of the Americans has now severely dwindled reminding us of the disastrous American adventure in Vietnam back in the sixties and seventies, In this war in spite of its overwhelming technological superiority and immense fire power the American forces had to leave Vietnam in disgrace and shame and the fall of Saigon in 1975 resulted in a Vietnamese victory and nothing but humiliation for America.
The invasion of Iraq resulted in the end of the Saddam Hussein regime but the entire country was plunged in chaos and terror. After 20 years of occupation in Afghanistan American forces had to leave in a confused way resulting in the return of the Taliban. Every American adventure in another country has given America nothing but shame and humiliation and yet the American war mongers have not learned their lesson. It cannot be denied that the Donald Trump Iran assault has gone terribly wrong causing severe energy crisis in the world and impacting the economies of poor third world countries. It appears that the American president is totally devoid of the global economics and has no interest in the impact of his domestic policies. His bombing of Iran starting in the end of February could not produce the desired results for the American planners. Bombing of Iran was initiated on behest of Israeli Premier Netanyahu who is a bitter enemy of Iran and believes that the Iranian Nuclear program is a direct threat to his country.
Donald Trump has tried to reverse all that done by Barack Obama. He scrapped the Iran Deal and instead of a deal he was under the impression that he could bring about changes in Iran by flexing his military muscles and that was the reason for the Iran war But Iran’s policies did not change, neither did the composition of the ruling class that governed the country. Trump’s Iran war has had consequences the American leader did not expect. The most important of these is the use of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea-lane through which most of the oil the Middle East produces passes. Hormuz is a 90-mile-long horseshoe-shaped sea-lane that enables the countries sitting on either side – Iran to the north and Oman to the south – to potentially disrupt shipping. Donald Trump’s declaration of economic warfare has failed miserably just like his ferocious bombing campaign failed to achieve the unconditional surrender of the Iranian armed forces. The narrow limita of the American military options too came to light. Trumps threats to impose the toughest sanctions in history and the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country were laughed away by the Iranian leaders and the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arraghchi said “We have seen this movie before”. Iranian officials warned of halting all oil flows from the Gulf and delivering an “earthquake-like” retaliation if Washington followed through.On what US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Economic D-Day last week, he announced measures to sever Iran’s “financial lifelines” and force a “regime endgame”.
The US is dependent on other countries to make its punitive economic sanctions successful but it appears that there is no interest shown by other nations. China has already withdrawn saying that pressure tactics wont work and a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said “will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its own interests” from “illegal unilateral sanctions”. Beijing warned of retaliation if the US imposes secondary sanctions. Washington is unlikely to go beyond threats and want a showdown with its biggest trading partner, especially with a Trump-President Xi Jinping summit coming up next month in Washington. Too much is at stake in that relationship to risk that.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad
