WHEN Operation Epic Fury began, widespread concerns the US was stumbling into another quagmire were unfounded. Instead of occupying an entire nation like Iraq and Afghanistan for nation-building purposes, Trump launched an air bombardment campaign from US-Israeli bases aimed at weakening Iran’s military capabilities. That meant Trump could stop the fighting whenever he wanted, exactly what happened. However, permanently ending the war with Iran is less easy for him. A peace settlement is still being relentlessly pursued, including by mediators like Pakistan. Hopefully, J. D. Vance will continue leading the American delegation, because changing personnel in the middle of talks is not a good idea. But supposing peace efforts fail, what should we expect continuation of war to look like?
First, the current ceasefire certainly means the end of the war’s first phase. A potential second phase is already taking shape, which will be different. The United States is seeking an alternative strategy to contain Iran, first by testing the waters, so to speak. The US Navy is seeing how far it can expand regional involvement without provoking war again. But if war does resume, it could become a prolonged affair. Iran’s response to the US-Israeli assault is to expand its own power through seizure of economic assets. Imposing a toll on every commercial ship passing the Strait of Hormuz puts the world’s most profitable waterway, a unilateral OPEC, in Iranian hands. Iran can rebuild its military and be able to manipulate the global economy in ways that give it tremendous leverage.
The USA’s mission is now to stop this. But that means getting entangled in the region in ways not easy to get out of. Hence, a “forever war” is becoming more likely. America’s first action is reportedly sending warships to locate mines in Oman’s side of the Strait so ships can bypass Iranian waters. But Trump has gone beyond that by blockading ships doing business with Iran, which is a safe approach because the US Navy can intercept them far away from Iran. The problem is that shutting Iran out of normal maritime trade will make it stake everything on the Hormuz tollbooth. To counter this, the US has to either go in and break Iran’s control of the waterway, thereby risking military escalation or shut down all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, thereby exacerbating economic turmoil.
President Trump’s current maritime blockade of Iran is the exact opposite of his lifting sanctions on Iranian oil tankers three weeks earlier. So either the economy concerns him less as days pass or he is more confident, with war paused, that he can control the situation. At the same time, Iran has threatened to expand its own shipping blockade, even extending it to the Red Sea. But this probably will no longer deter the United States. When Trump first announced the blockade, he said it was aimed at all ships that paid Iran the Hormuz passage toll, which CENTCOM quickly clarified was not the case. But this suggests the Trump administration is now planning to wage economic warfare against Iran as much as it takes, instead of the other way around. So a total US-imposed quarantine of the Persian Gulf is possible in the coming days, but it can’t be kept up forever.
If Iran does not yield, the US military will start moving into the Persian Gulf to tackle the problem at the source. Then the war inevitably resumes in full force, in its second phase. This time, it will involve the US fighting with Iran, likely the Houthis too, over control of vital waterways. But don’t expect the United States to actively use military forces to protect commercial shipping as during the 1980s “Tanker War”. America’s entire focus is on countering the security threat it believes Iran poses, so no resources will be spared to provide naval escort or run a convoy.
This new phase of the war may last longer and escalate considerably. The US, seeking a quick end, will probably end up mounting a vast air and naval assault to test the resolve of the secular government and regular military still controlling Iran, pushing them to come to terms. But the inevitable result will instead be their authority collapses and the hardline paramilitary forces and clerical establishment gains full power and solidifies Iran’s commitment to the revolution. Then a third phase of the war could start to emerge, one that lasts for years and spreads across a wide region, possibly engulfing even nations like Turkey and Pakistan. And the cost to America will bring about the downfall of MAGA and the Republican Party.
The first phase of the war was fought entirely by air, but the second phase will be fought both by air and sea and the third by air, sea and land. The current ceasefire is the final chance to prevent this from happening, so negotiators must give their utmost effort to peacemaking.
—The writer is Director at Pakistan’s People Led Disaster Management.
