NEW YORK – US Army soldier allegedly made more than $400,000 trading on polymarket on the basis of classified information regarding the timing of a US military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela
The US Justice Department said Ken Van Dyke, 38 of Fayetteville, North Carolina, has been charged with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, each of which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison; one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison; and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison.
It said the soldier has been charged with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.
The charges arise from an alleged scheme in which Van Dyke used sensitive classified information to make wagers on Polymarket, a prediction marketplace.
As alleged in the indictment, Van Dyke participated in the planning and execution of the US military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, called “Operation Absolute Resolve,” and Van Dyke used his access to classified information about that operation to personally profit.
“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”
“Today’s announcement makes clear no one is above the law, and this FBI will do whatever it takes to defend the homeland and safeguard our nation’s secrets,” said FBI Director Kash Patel. “Any clearance holders thinking of cashing in their access and knowledge for personal gain will be held accountable.”
“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York.
“Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly betrayed his fellow soldiers by utilizing classified information for his own financial gain,” said FBI Assistant Director in Charge James C. Barnacle Jr. “Van Dyke profited more than $400,000 by trading various outcomes related to Venezuela after learning of the operation because of his role as a U.S. Army soldier. The FBI will continue to investigate threats to our nation’s security especially from those entrusted to safeguard sensitive classified information and military operations.”
In 2025, Polymarket, a prediction marketplace operated by Blockratize Inc., began offering binary event contracts related to whether certain events involving Venezuela and/or Maduro would, or would not, occur. Those event contracts included the future likelihood of “US forces in Venezuela by” certain dates, the future likelihood of Maduro being “out” of or removed from power by certain dates, the future likelihood of the U.S. invading Venezuela by on or before Jan. 31, and the future likelihood of President Trump “invoking War Powers against Venezuela” by a certain date.
As alleged, on or about Dec. 26, 2025, Van Dyke created a Polymarket account, funded it, and began trading on Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets. In total, Van Dyke made approximately 13 bets from Dec. 27, 2025, through the evening of Jan. 26. Those bets all took the “YES” position on “U.S. Forces in Venezuela . . . by January 31, 2026”; “Maduro out by . . . January 31, 2026”; “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by . . . January 31,”; or “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by . . . January 31.” Van Dyke bet a total of approximately $33,034 on those outcomes while in possession of classified nonpublic information about Operation Absolute Resolve.
In the predawn hours of Jan. 3, the U.S. apprehended Maduro and his wife at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, and hours later the President of the United States announced the successful operation. Following the President’s public announcement, Polymarket resolved several Maduro- and Venezuela-related contracts to “YES,” including the markets “Maduro out by . . . January 31, 2026,” and “US forces in Venezuela by . . . January 31, 2026.” As a result, Van Dyke won his wagers on those contracts. In total, Van Dyke allegedly profited approximately $409,881.
