Türkiye’s Presidential election: An expert opinion
RECEP Tayyip Erdogan’s “victory” in the most recently held presidential election in Türkiye has “rattled” many countries of the EU and around the world which has been “dissimilating” false and fake propaganda against him but at the end miserably failed to impress the common voters. It seems that Erdogan the “democratic caliph” has once again played his cards well and succeeded to dismantle the “whims & wishes” of all the allied opposition political parties in the “biggest” electoral battle on earth. Moreover, Erdogan “out-classed” his main opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu even in the “run-off” election held on May 28, 2023. According to the Supreme Election Council he further consolidated his electoral support in the run-off election and gained 52.18 percent votes whereas the other candidate achieved 47.82 percent votes.
He masterly used “populist politics” and won the “hearts and souls” of millions of voters and won the third consecutive presidential election in the national history of Türkiye. He started massive socio-economic development projects in the country and thus tried to give “feel-good” spirit to common people which have been converted into electoral support in the election. Even his political party and allies succeeded and secured majority seats in the parliamentary elections. As an experienced “political magician” he attracted the attention of common people through pure and simple human acts of charity, sacrifice, submission and services in big cities, small towns and tiny villages alike. According to statistical data his political party AKP won the maximum votes in “rural areas” and secured majority in the most affected earthquake regions i.e. 10 out of 12 regions.
Whereas opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu achieved victory in most of the “metropolitan cities” and “coastal areas” representing free will of the educated and affluent class in the country. Thus rural and urban “electoral divide” is further “widened” and “wild” too reaching dangerous proportion. Erdogan’s policy to accommodate the Syrian refugees by granting nationality paid well during the recently concluded parliamentary and presidential elections while the opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu (CHP) opposed this policy producing socio-economic and geopolitical drains and strains on Türkiye state. It seems that Erdogan has better skills of political negotiations and dialogue and he successfully formed “electoral coalition” proved superior than the allied opposition in the country. His rotary, human customization, personal manipulation and, above all, euphoric persuasions outperformed “stereotype” political campaign, free from any “sensationalism” and “human drama” badly damaged the popularity of the coalition leader Kilicdaroglu.
Obviously, he failed to translate people’s “economic woes” into “electoral wonders”, “social miseries” into “segmented mellows” and last but not the least, “political divide” into “political decisive dividends”. Thus Erdogan, a perfect political guru and marketing strategist, played all is triumph cards well and won again. Critical analysis of both the presidential candidates’ pledges reveals that Erdogan mesmerized the common voters through his popular economic policies, plans and projects ranging from construction of 650,000 new flats in the south-eastern part of the country, reducing inflation from staggering 10% and decreasing interest rates by 2024, more regulations to protect the common people from housing prices, voluntary return of Syrians to their native country and last but not the least, development of diplomatic axis in the region and beyond.
Whereas, Kilicdaroglu mainly showcased socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic structuralism and realism mainly, construction of houses for survivors, reduction in inflation through applying traditional economic and monetary policies, social housing schemes, systematic return of the Syrian refugees and closer ties with the West. It is feared that Erdogan will face a host of domestic challenges in a deeply divided country, from a battered economy to pressure for the repatriation of Syrian refugees to the need to rebuild after a devastating earthquake. According to latest economic figures (March 2023), inflation hit a staggering 85% in October before easing to 44% in April 2023 due to which the cost-of-living crisis has become skyrocketing and constant price hike produced domino effect and blasted the lives of common people in the country.
Unfortunately, economic and monetary policies could not tamp the high interest rates through promotion of growth. Generally raising interest rates are controlled through tight monetary policy. To conclude Erdogan just survived the toughest political battle of his entire life and won the presidential election through successful dissemination of nationalism, conservative right-wing psyches in rural and small towns, populist politics and, above all, selling of people’s friendly dreams during his electioneering. It seems that his media team effectively showcased personal snags of Kilicdaroglu and therefore altered people’s electoral preferences.
The regional critics allegedly blamed Erdogan to use state apparatus, funds and media to attract the common voters which does not have any substance. According to Al Jazeera national media obliged Erdogan 32 hours while Kilicdaroglu only 32 minutes. The last two rallies in the opposition strongest regions i.e. Ankara (1.6 million) and Izmir (1.7 million) geared the momentum in favour of Erdogan and his party AKP and changed the political preference in the country. Erdogan won the election through better political alliances, electoral strategies, media policies and marketing tools by timely softening the effects of inflation with public spending which may not be sustainable in the longer run including minimum wage and pension increases.
Erdogan’s victory speech highlighted his future priorities ranging from national unity, political harmony, economic stability and sustainability along with effective role in the regional as well as international diplomacy. It is suggested to create strategic balance in the consumption and growth, readdressing of current economic meltdown through applying appropriate long term economic policies, tight monetary policy, price control, rent capping, overhauling in real estate market, and last but not the least further diversification of macro-economy because country’s stakes are higher than any political party’s own vested interests.
Unprepared economic structural reforms always act like snakes & ladders game which should be avoided because scene of political jugglery is passed away and voters free will should be awarded through better socio-economic prosperity and qualitative life dreams. Hopefully, Erdogan’s presidency will further enhance freedom of expression and ethnic diversity, multiculturalism and protection of minority groups. The bitter realities of humans and limitations of humanity should also be respected accordingly. Moreover, being staunch supporter of Muslim brotherhood, OIC, Palestine, Kashmir, TRNC, Pakistan and Azerbaijan the victory of Erdogan would be value addition in further strengthening of bilateral relations in the days to come.
—The writer is Executive Director, Centre for South Asia & International Studies, Islamabad, regional expert China, BRI & CPEC & senior analyst, world affairs, Pakistan Observer.
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