MARK Lawrence’s grim dark fantasy, “Prince of Thrones” narrates the dark tale of Jorg Ancrath, a prince who impishly uses deception, fear and propaganda to maintain his power and control. Seeing Indian chauvinists gloating over the recent decision by the United States to sanction the sale of Predator drones system to India echoes a similar situation where PM Narendra Modi is all set to portray this as a major victory for his regime while going into the general elections. This development has paved the way for India to become the first non-NATO country to acquire this technology. Keeping in view the unabated course by the US to arm India with sophisticated weapons and India’s aggressive strategic posturing under the Hindutva-inspired leadership, it is imperative to analyse the broader implications of such developments.
According to the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, under the $3.99 billion contract, India will acquire 31 MQ-9B Sky Guardian drones, 161 Embedded Global Positioning and Inertial Navigation Systems, 170 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, 16 air-to-air training missiles, 310 small-scale laser bombs, ground control stations, missile launchers and other equipment. Out of these 31 High Endurance Long Altitude (HALE) drones manufactured by the General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, 15 will be designated for the Indian Navy and 8 each for the Air Force and Army.
The state-of-the-art Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS) technology provides real-time situational awareness to force commanders by ensuring persistent and efficient intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR). A distinguished feature of MQ-9B model is its capability of performing offensive operations against targets on land, sea and air. The all-weather UAV possess the ability to fly for more than 40 hours with assistance from artificial satellites. The Lynx Multi-mode Radar and electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) sensors enable the bird for better ground mapping, weather penetration and efficient target acquisition.
Despite the advance features, several strategic, operational and financial factors are packaged with the MQ-9B technology creating numerous weighty limitations. The utility of these UAVs prerequisites extensive logistical and operational requirements. The technology necessitates highly trained operators supported by a sophisticated and reliable intelligence infrastructure. Considering that the Predators have mainly been used by the US against the adversaries with no potent air forces, their mettle against powerful air forces is yet to be tested. The Predators are unable to evade radar detection and can be intercepted by sophisticated air defense systems available to Pakistan and China. Moreover, the staggering cost of the drones makes their deployment against such powerful adversaries a high-cost choice.
It is significant to note that Pakistan already possesses drone technologies tailored to its specific security requirements emanating from the threat of terrorism. The Indian acquisition of the technology is largely driven by a tit-for-tat mentality, as well as by the aggressive leadership of PM Modi who exudes optics and swaggering power. Furthermore, the distribution of the drones to India’s tri-services is likely to dilute the effectiveness of the Predators keeping in view the vastness of the area India aspires to cover including the Indian Ocean as well as its borders with China and Pakistan. It also indicates that this is not one time stop and shop activity rather India will aggressively pursue to increase the size of its UAVs fleet.
India’s bid to procure advanced weapon systems beyond its strategic requirements signals its aspirations to assert military might over the region. The cutting-edge radar systems, surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles, electronic warfare (EW) systems and sophisticated multirole aircrafts provide PAF a potent response capability against any aerial threat including MQ-9B. Primarily, the rigorous training and, unmatched operational readiness enables the guardians of Pakistani skies to prevail against any adversary. Keeping in view the relentless modernisation campaign of the PAF under courageous and visionary leadership of Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber, it is high-time that PAF should increase its focus on emerging Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS) technologies which include Radio Frequency Jammers, GPS Spoofers, High Power Microwave (HPM) and Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Devices, High-energy lasers, and Cyber Takeover Systems etc.
Nonetheless, the destabilising effects of this sophisticated technology cannot be ignored. Just three months before the upcoming general elections in India, the news of acquisition of this lethal weaponry is tantamount to an addition to PM Modi’s arsenal of gimmickry which will fuel radicalisation in India and increase the likelihood of aggressive actions. The amplified jingoism, fuelled by the acquisition of drones and possibly exacerbated by pre-election stunts by PM Modi has the potential to reignite regional tensions and jeopardize prospects for peace in the region.
—The writer is a Senior Researcher at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS) Lahore.
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