THE recent wave of terrorism in Balochistan is not only condemnable but also alarming regarding the security of the Pakistani citizens, including residents and travellers in Balochistan. Needless to say, there are multiple complex factors contributing to the present security situation in the province. Despite the profound role played by our security forces and intelligence agencies to address the concerned security challenges, it seems that because of multiple factors contributing to the terrorism syndrome in Balochistan, we are yet unable to completely ward off this menace from the province.
Hybrid terrorism refers to methods of terrorist activity that combine traditional terrorism with other forms of conflict, such as cyber warfare, guerrilla tactics and the use of proxies or state support. This form of terrorism blurs the lines between state-sponsored aggression and non-state actor activities, complicating counter-terrorism efforts. The integration of different strategies allows perpetrators to enhance their effectiveness and reach. Unlike the ‘traditional’ tribal regions where the Taliban operate, Balochistan does not have comprehensive security arrangements, and this vacuum makes it an easy target for retaliatory violence. Alarmingly, infrastructure ranks very high on the target list and this has been causing significant headaches in our civil and security establishments.
Role of violent non-state actors (VNSAs): Needless to say, Pakistan has been experiencing the spread of multiple terrorist/militant organizations, committing violent extremism in Pakistan. Over the years, these organizations have proved that they are atrocious and can cause extreme violence to achieve their political objectives. Such violence has profound ramifications at local, regional, and international levels. That said, there is a complex tapestry regarding the name and nomenclature of these non-state actors. There are number of violent non -state actors(VNSA) working in Balochistan such as the Bloch ultranationalist tribes: Bugti and Mari, Baloch Republican Army(BRA), Baloch Liberation Army(BLA), Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), Lashkar-e-Balochistan, Difa-e-Balochistan, Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K), the group affiliated with Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch Raj Aj Sung (BRAS).
Envious role of foreign agencies: Balochistan’s geostrategic location has captured the attention of all the neighbouring countries. Not only has its rich resource abundance and strategic location interested China but Pakistan’s adversaries have also been actively participating in causing insurgencies in Balochistan to hamper its development. Along with the multifaceted role of the international actors, the internally frustrated and misguided political groups within Balochistan and their increasing relationship with similar ethnicities across the border have also caused serious consequences for Pakistan. In addition, RAW, NDS, the USAID other agencies are active to support the Baloch militant groups.
Role of 5th generation warfare: The province is being subjected to fifth generation warfare massively. The adversaries of Pakistan have been trying to generate chaos and lawlessness in the province in order to gain their political objectives. Pursuing their nefarious designs, the enemies are behind conspiracies against the province, targeting it with tools of fifth generation warfare. The enemies of our country are sponsoring insurgencies, abetting terrorism, sabotaging development projects, and publishing misleading and fake media reports to influence the minds of local communities and incite them against its own state and its institutions. This research paper explores challenges of fifth generation warfare to Balochistan. These challenges include foreign involvement, terrorism, externally abetted insurgent groups, and propaganda campaigns launched by hostile forces.
The CPEC drivers and security challenges: CPEC has the potential to deeply reshape Pakistan’s economic standing and overall regional role, as well as to provide a substantial boost to China’s Belt and Road initiative. Accordingly, its relevance goes beyond the –admittedly sizable- face value of its infrastructure projects, and straddles the economic and geopolitical interests of this region, particularly, the needed full swim operation of the Gwadar port. Against this backdrop, it has been the agenda of anti-Pakistan forces to create political and security chaos in Balochistan. In order to apply their devious agenda they have been investing to buy the sympathies of the Bloch tribes and deprived groups.
Role of internal political deprivation via manipulated narratives: Manipulative political narratives in Balochistan undermine the security situation by fostering distrust among the populace and exacerbating conflicts. The narratives often involve external manipulation and domestic actors that hinder progress, as highlighted in the context of public protests and general disillusionment with electoral processes. Additionally, entrenched systems like the Sardari System contribute to political crises and social deprivation, further fuelling instability and violence.
CBOs can play pivotal role in curbing terrorism: Community-based organizations (CBOs) in Balochistan play a crucial role in curbing terrorism by fostering social cohesion, promoting peace, and addressing the root causes of violence. They often engage local communities in dialogue, and provide education and vocational training, which can reduce the allure of terrorism for youth. Furthermore, CBOs can empower communities to actively participate in local governance and security initiatives, ultimately contributing to a more stable environment. A 2024 study in the Journal of Asian Development Studies examined the role of CBOs in supporting these women, and found that they face economic challenges and barriers to healthcare access.
The need of a grand strategy: Though Pakistani security forces have engaged in multiple operations aimed at countering various nationalist groups and militant activities in Balochistan, amid a NACTA- based security strategy, we need to adopt a broad-based multipronged inclusive strategy consisting of a short-term and long term security strategy (a combination of conventional and non-conventional approach) to repel the force of terrorism in Balochistan.
That said, a soft approach to building Balochistan involves utilizing localized development strategies that focus on community engagement, peace building and sustainable practices. Recently, Federal Government has launched multiple development projects. The SDGs Framework for Balochistan is an initiative of the Planning and Development Department, Government of Balochistan with the technical support of United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) .This approach further needs to address the socio-economic challenges in the region while minimizing conflict and promoting long-term stability. A spatial strategy is needed to guide these development efforts, ensuring alignment with local needs and conditions.
—The writer, an independent ‘IR’ researcher-cum-international law analyst based in Pakistan, is member of European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on IR, Critical Peace & Conflict Studies, also a member of Washington Foreign Law Society and European Society of International Law. He deals with the strategic and nuclear issues.
