Significance of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence
THE day of 28 May has a special significance in Pakistan’s history when Pakistan became a nuclear power. This year, we celebrated 28 May Day amidst numerous domestic challenges and international geopolitical competition intensifying the world. The US and China are competing every coming day. The US is making alliances with different countries to contain China. India is getting benefits as a result of the geopolitical competition. As a result, a strategic imbalance is happening between India and Pakistan, creating a security dilemma for Pakistan and creating pressure on Pakistan’s conventional forces. In this situation, nuclear deterrence guarantees Pakistan’s safety and security.
The start of the defence cooperation between the US and India was the year of 2005, when both countries signed a new frame for India-US defence relations, however, this started intensifying in the later period. In 2013, the US and India signed the Joint Declaration on defence cooperation which significantly increased the magnitude of the relationship between the two countries and took them to the level of close partners. This agreement between the two countries opens doors for defence cooperation. The US also signed an initiative of emerging technologies with the US. The US companies are developing weapons systems in India. India is also buying weapons from countries such as France and Israel.
India also benefits from geopolitical competition with China in terms of the economy. The US is pursuing the policy of decoupling with China. Many American companies are shifting them. According to the US-India Strategic and Partnership Forum, 200 US companies are moving their business to India from the US. According to Bloomberg, India is trying to attract a thousand companies to shift their business away from China. The shift of companies away from China will further strengthen the Indian economy.
As military power is a function of economic power, India is investing more in the defence budget. In 2023, India decided to boost its defence budget by 13 per cent. With its growing military power, India will be able to spend more money on developing and buying new weapon systems and increase the budget for research and development. In 2023, India also decides to increase 13.1 percent of its research and development budget. Due to geopolitical competition, it has become easier for India to strengthen its economy and military. This situation creates challenges for Pakistan. Due to economic challenges, it is difficult for Pakistan.
However, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons role increases in this situation and stops India from utilizing its conventional power against Pakistan despite its aggressive designs. Pakistan’s capacity to deter aggression stems partly from its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan aims to keep India from launching a full-scale conventional military strike. The threat of nuclear retaliation might act as a deterrent and contribute to the region’s strategic stability.
Despite India’s growing military strength due to a suitable geopolitical situation, it does not threaten Pakistan because its nuclear weapons balance out India’s conventional military preponderation, redressing a historical imbalance. When comparing troops, tanks, planes, and naval assets, India pellucidly has the upper hand since its military is more immensely colossal and technologically more equipped. The hazards and uncertainties of military operations are incremented by the presence of nuclear weapons which avails to balance out this conventional imbalance.
Nuclear weapons increase strategic ambiguity and dubiousness, making them arduous to utilize for escalation control. The subsistence of nuclear weapons might make it harder for India to make decisions during a confrontation as the country would have to weigh the potential for setting off a nuclear retaliation from Pakistan. As a result, people could be more conscientious and restrained, decrementing the likelihood of a major conflict. India may think twice before launching a diminutive war or taking any military move that may expand into a full-scale battle if they know Pakistan has nuclear weapons.
India may be more hesitant to resort to military action to settle dissensions if it calibrates that doing so will push it above Pakistan’s nuclear threshold. It cannot be overstated that nuclear weapons are very hazardous and devastating. If nuclear weapons were utilized, it would be disastrous for both nations and the whole area. Maintaining strategic stability and eschewing the peril of a nuclear confrontation is in the best interest of both nations which is why Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal in the first place.
Hence, Pakistan’s possession of nuclear weapons keeps regional power dynamics stable. It neutralizes the strategic benefits relished by India’s neighbours. A nuclear arsenal truncates the possibility of a full-scale military confrontation with India despite its conventional military strength. This stability increases the consequentiality of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in the broader geopolitical context of the region.
—The writer is research officer at Centre for International Strategic Studies, AJK.
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