RECENT by-elections held in six National Assembly and seven Punjab Assembly constituencies concluded without incident.
Yet, even as the polling process wrapped up smoothly, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) continues to grapple with a long list of complaints concerning violations of the election code of conduct and the Election Act. The Commission, empowered under the Constitution to curb electoral malpractices, has once again found itself in the spotlight. This time, the controversy began with the provocative and threatening statements issued by Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Suhail Afridi during the by-election in NA-18 (Haripur). In response, the ECP invoked Article 245 and summoned the Pakistan Army for assistance. Afridi was later served a notice, though he chose not to appear and instead deputed his counsel. While the Commission excused his absence, the matter is far from over. The Chief Minister now stands at a decisive juncture: he must either seek pardon or risk disqualification.
The ECP’s assertiveness draws from a strengthened legal position. When Article 218(3) is read with Chapter X of the Election Act 2017, the Commission gains statutory ground to disqualify any individual involved in electoral wrongdoing. This interpretation marks a stark shift from previous years, when the courts repeatedly curtailed the ECP’s authority. It is worth recalling that in 2021–22, during Imran Khan’s premiership, two provincial ministers were disqualified by the ECP for violating the code of conduct—only to have the Islamabad High Court set aside the decision, ruling that disqualification was solely a judicial prerogative. However, Parliament has now strengthened and elevated the constitutional standing of the ECP through the 26th Constitutional Amendment and the courts have further empowered the ECP under Article 218(3), granting it the authority to disqualify members. It is possible that Chief Minister Suhail Afridi may fall under this provision.
Meanwhile, violations are being pursued across party lines. State Minister Talal Chaudhry has been summoned, while the District Monitoring Officer in Faisalabad has fined Prime Minister’s Adviser Rana Sanaullah for allegedly participating in the campaign of his son-in-law—an explicit breach of the code. Federal Minister Owais Leghari and Special Assistant Huzaifa Rahman have also been issued notices. The message is clear: the ECP is not shying away from exercising its broadened powers. Beyond these legal clashes, an equally consequential political drama is unfolding in the National Assembly. Imran Khan has nominated Mahmood Khan Achakzai as Leader of the Opposition, despite the fact that Achakzai is the lone member of his party in the Assembly. Speaker Ayaz Sadiq has expressed strong reservations and the Establishment, too, is watching Achakzai closely.
This decline is stark when contrasted with his earlier stature. In 2017, when Nawaz Sharif faced lifetime disqualification, Achakzai stood by him and assured Nawaz Sharif that he had the ability to launch a major movement in Balochistan for his support. Nawaz Sharif even attended a rally in Quetta at his request, but Achakzai failed to mobilize any significant public movement. Later, as part of the PDM, he stood with the Opposition; after the no-confidence vote against Imran Khan, he quietly drifted away. Now, the impression is being given that Achakzai can “guarantee” Imran Khan—that he is in a position to secure Imran Khan’s approval on a new “social contract.” But in the present scenario, there is no possibility of any new social contract. With the 27th Amendment passed and the 28th in the pipeline, the era of informal guarantees appears over.
The proposed 28th Amendment—expected to bring sweeping administrative reforms, including the restructuring of provincial boundaries under Article 239—signals deeper change. Discussions within key quarters suggest that after its passage, fresh elections could be held by late 2026. Most probably, like the previous amendments, the full text of the changes will only be made available to lawmakers at the last moment. Several major political figures may not return to the next electoral landscape. The PPP, in particular, faces mounting pressure. Its aggressive stance on the 18th Amendment has reportedly prompted a clear warning: any obstruction during the 28th Amendment will carry consequences. Compounding this is the possibility that the presidential immunity granted under Article 248 in the recent amendment may be challenged in the Constitutional Court. With the fundamental structure of the 18th Amendment itself under review, the PPP’s bargaining chips have dwindled.
In contrast, the government is weighing the option of appointing Maulana Fazlur Rehman as Leader of the Opposition. The Speaker has the constitutional authority to make this decision and politically, the move appears far more viable than Achakzai’s candidacy. It is time for the ruling set-up to heed these warning signs and bring the country together, allowing the democratic process to advance. The recent constitutional amendments have already worsened the crisis of state. As Pakistan stands on the cusp of transformative constitutional reforms, the traditional equations of power are shifting. The next two years may well redefine the country’s political order—its institutions, its provinces and its leadership.
—The writer is former Secretary Election Commission of Pakistan and currently Chairman National Democratic Foundation.
