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Pakistan’s election upset unveils political fallout

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PAKISTAN’S Parliamentary elections ended in a surprise upset, one that could make the transition to the next government a chaotic affair and that could leave the winning politicians without real governing powers. Backed by Pakistan’s powerful and influential military establishment, Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) expected to win 8th February’s vote handily. However, voters handed a stunning victory to politicians allied with jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). But that does not mean Khan will be the next prime minister or even that his party will lead the next government. Sharif was seen to have the backing of Pakistan’s military, which has long been the country’s political power broker. Voters across the country, however, appeared to have come out in unprecedented numbers to support PTI and Khan.

The scale of the votes for PTI-backed candidates indicates that, according to sources, the military was unable to “manage” the results for Sharif as planned. Politicians allied with the former Premier Imran Khan’s Party have defied a military-led crackdown and alleged widespread rigging to win the most seats in Pakistan’ election, but opponent Nawaz Sharif claimed victory and said he would form a coalition government. Candidates backed by PTI, the party run by Khan who is now serving sentences of more than a decade in jail, claimed stunning victory after Thursday 8th February’s polls, defying all expectations that Sharif, a three-time (former) prime minister and his Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) would win an easy majority.

Khan declared victory in an audio-visual message created using artificial intelligence and shared on his X social media account, calling on his supporters to celebrate a win that was achieved despite what he called a crackdown on his party. PTI was essentially prohibited from running candidates after the Supreme Court ruled they could not use their electoral symbol on ballots: many PTI politicians instead ran as independents. And independent candidates, most of them associated with PTI, took 92 seats in Pakistan Parliament more than each of other major parties. That would give the party the upper hand in forming a government and choosing a Prime Minister. But since the independents are not part of any party, PML-N and the PPP both are in talks to form a coalition to lead the next government.

Practically, that might not result in massive changes to daily life. The military has since led a sustained attack on Khan and his PTI, making it clear it would not tolerate his return to power. Over the course of the month, PTI leaders and workers were arrested and their candidates prevented from campaigning on polling day the government suspended all mobile services including internet access, in a move widely seen as intended to hurt PTI’s voters’ turnout. None of the major parties have very cogent or convincing plans to deal with Pakistan’s economic and security woes.

—The writer is a contributing columnist, based in Lahore.

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