IN recent weeks, Pakistan has found itself at the centre of a diplomatic whirlwind, deftly balancing relations with two global heavyweights: China and the United States. This delicate dance, observed particularly in the month of May, underscores Pakistan’s strategic significance on the world stage and its adeptness in managing complex international dynamics.
A prime example of Pakistan’s diplomatic finesse was Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar’s visit to China from May 13 to May 16, 2024. The invitation extended by Wang Yi, a key figure in China’s political hierarchy, symbolized the depth of the Sino-Pakistani bond. The subsequent Fifth Round of China-Pakistan Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue, co-chaired by Dar and Yi, marked a milestone in bilateral cooperation.
What emerged from this dialogue was a vision of expanded collaboration under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with a particular focus on upgrading the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This signifies not just economic cooperation but a strategic alignment of interests, as both nations aim to enhance connectivity, trade, and development across various sectors. The commitment to modernizing the Khunjerab Pass, facilitating year-round trade between the two countries, further underscores the depth of this partnership.
Simultaneously, Pakistan engaged in high-level talks with the United States, focusing on the pressing issue of counterterrorism. Ambassador Syed Haider Shah, alongside Ambassador Elizabeth Richard, co-chaired the Pakistan-US Counterterrorism Dialogue in Washington DC on May 10, 2024. This dialogue reaffirmed both nations’ commitment to combating terrorist groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and ISIS-Khorasan.
What’s intriguing is how Pakistan navigates its relationship with the US, which historically has been marked by tension and suspicion. However, recent interactions indicate a thawing of relations, perhaps spurred by Pakistan’s pivotal role in regional security and stability. General Michael Erik Kurilla’s visit to Pakistan, where discussions centred on military cooperation and counterterrorism efforts, exemplifies this evolving partnership. General Kurilla’s discussions with Pakistani military leaders, including Chief of the Army Staff Gen. Syed Asim Munir, centred on military cooperation and counterterrorism efforts.
Of particular importance was General Kurilla’s engagement with Pakistani military officials in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, bordering Afghanistan. These discussions delved into the intricacies of counterterrorism operations along the volatile Pakistan-Afghanistan border, highlighting the shared commitment to combating terrorism in the region.
Moreover, General Kurilla’s visit also underscored the enduring military-to-military partnership between Pakistan and the United States. His acknowledgment of the “extraordinary capability, competence and professionalism” of the Pakistan defence forces speaks volumes about the mutual respect and trust that underpins this relationship.
What’s significant about Pakistan’s diplomatic juggling act is not just the ability to engage with multiple stakeholders but the nuanced approach it takes. Pakistan recognizes the strategic importance of its alliance with China, rooted in mutual trust and economic interdependence. Yet, it also acknowledges the value of collaboration with the United States, particularly in addressing shared security concerns.
At the heart of Pakistan’s diplomatic strategy lies a commitment to pragmatism and national interest. In a world often characterized by geopolitical rivalries and great power competition, Pakistan’s stance of non-alignment and constructive engagement is commendable. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s statement during his visit to China, emphasizing Pakistan’s reluctance to be drawn into bloc politics or great power contests, reflects this ethos.
However, amidst these diplomatic manoeuvres, it’s essential to address the elephant in the room: the trade imbalance between Pakistan and its key partners. While Pakistan enjoys a robust economic relationship with China, as evidenced by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and other bilateral initiatives, the trade dynamics with the United States paint a different picture.
The United States remains Pakistan’s largest export destination, followed by the UK and Germany. However, trade between Pakistan and China is heavily skewed in favour of the latter, contributing to a persistent trade imbalance. This trade disparity underscores the need for Pakistan to diversify its export markets and address structural issues hindering trade growth.
As Pakistan navigates the complex terrain of international relations, its ability to maintain equilibrium between competing interests will be crucial. The challenge lies not just in managing relations with China and the US but in leveraging these partnerships to advance its own economic development and security objectives.
In a rapidly changing global landscape, Pakistan’s diplomatic dance serves as a testament to its resilience and adaptability. As it continues to tread the tightrope between competing interests, Pakistan’s role as a bridge between East and West becomes ever more vital.
Despite Pakistan’s successful efforts to engage with two major powers simultaneously, there are underlying challenges that merit consideration. A notable example is the evolution of the China-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue, which has seen significant turnover in Pakistani representation over the years. The first round of the dialogue took place in 2019, with the then Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi representing Pakistan, while China was represented by Minister for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi. Subsequent rounds in 2020 and 2021 also featured Qureshi representing Pakistan. However, by the fourth round in May 2022, Bilawal Bhutto of the Pakistan People’s Party assumed the role of Foreign Minister and represented Pakistan. Most recently, in the fifth round, held in May 2024, Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar from the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) represented Pakistan.
This turnover of three foreign ministers within five years reflects political instability and inconsistency in approaches within Pakistan’s leadership. The shifting landscape suggests challenges in maintaining continuity and coherence in diplomatic engagements, particularly with key partners like China.
From China’s perspective, having to interface with different foreign ministers from Pakistan in such a short span may introduce uncertainties about the continuity and consistency of bilateral engagements. The volatility in Pakistan’s political situation underscores the importance of establishing stable governance and leadership to sustain long-term strategic partnerships.
Moving forward, it is essential for Pakistan to address these internal challenges to ensure greater stability and continuity in its foreign policy engagements. A more stable political environment will not only enhance Pakistan’s credibility and reliability as a diplomatic partner but also strengthen its ability to effectively navigate complex international relations, particularly with key allies like China.
—The writer works for Islamabad-based think tank Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) as its Managing Director.
