Pakistan is likely to receive below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country during August 2026.
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), temperatures are expected to remain above average.
The outlook follows a relatively dry July, when rainfall remained near or below normal across much of the country.
Gilgit-Baltistan received above-normal rainfall, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir and Punjab recorded mostly near-normal precipitation. Sindh and Balochistan, however, remained predominantly drier than usual.
Despite the overall subdued rainfall, isolated heavy downpours in northeastern Punjab, Kashmir and adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa triggered flash and urban flooding.
For August, PMD’s forecast, based on 10 global seasonal prediction models, points to the persistence of positive El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases. These conditions are expected to contribute to below-normal rainfall over much of Pakistan.
The largest rainfall deficits are likely across northeastern and central Punjab, adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir, as well as southeastern Sindh. Central and southern parts of the country, including Punjab, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and most of Balochistan, have a strong probability of receiving below-normal rainfall.
Northern areas, particularly Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining areas of Kashmir, may receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall.
Temperatures Outlook
Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide. The major temperature departures are forecast over eastern Gilgit-Baltistan, central and northeastern Punjab, adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
Impacts and Advisories
PMD warned that reduced rainfall could lower water availability and increase dependence on stored water and groundwater, particularly for agriculture. Seasonal vegetables and Kharif crops in Punjab and Sindh may require additional irrigation.
Higher temperatures in northern areas, combined with near-normal rainfall, could accelerate snow and glacier melt, increasing river flows and the risk of flooding. Mountainous regions could also face glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), flash floods and landslides.
The PMD cautioned that isolated heavy downpours could still cause flash floods in mountainous areas of Punjab, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, while urban flooding and hill torrents may affect southern Punjab and Balochistan.
Long gaps between rainfall spells could also heighten heat stress across the plains of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. Strong winds, dust storms, thunderstorms and hailstorms may damage standing crops, vegetables and orchards.
PMD also warned of a possible rise in dengue cases in flood-affected and poorly drained urban and low-lying areas. The PMD advised farmers to follow latest weather advisories before irrigation or harvesting, while travellers and tourists were urged to exercise caution during rainfall events.
