From Qatar to Riyadh: Pakistan’s geostrategic rise
ON 7 May, at 1:15 a.m. IST (Indian Standard Time), Indian aircraft, including 14 Rafales, took off from Ambala and Gwalior.
Between 1:30 a.m. and 1:38 a.m., a beyond-visual-range (BVR) engagement unfolded where Pakistani J-10Cs, supported by Erieye airborne early-warning aircraft, fired PL-15 missiles at ranges exceeding 100 km (up to 182 km in one reported case). At 1:35 a.m., an Indian Air Force (IAF) 4.5-generation multirole Rafale EH (tail number BS-001) was hit. Video footage from Aklian Kalan village near Bathinda, Punjab (India), captured the crash and fireball, time-stamped by locals at 1:35 a.m. Within the same 8-minute window, three more Rafales were downed (BS021, BS022 and BS027) contributing to at least seven IAF losses—four Rafales, one MiG-29, one Mirage 2000 and one Su-30MKI. The engagement ended by 1:38 a.m. IST.
The downing of the Rafales, advanced French-made fighters, marked a significant blow to Western military technology. Pakistan’s multi-domain strategy, integrating advanced J-10C fighters, long-range PL-15 missiles, Erieye early-warning systems and electronic warfare capabilities, overwhelmed the Rafale’s countermeasures. This coordinated approach brought Pakistan to the global spotlight, highlighting its advanced air combat capabilities.
Global military experts, analysts and officials convened in panels, webinars and seminars to analyze Pakistan’s electronic warfare dominance. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Pakistan’s ‘textbook deterrence’ strategies, including beyond-visual-range engagements and integrated air defence systems, were thoroughly examined for their role in thwarting deeper Indian incursions. The Indonesian Air Force hosted two consecutive seminars, inviting defence attachés and regional military experts to assess the strategic implications of the Pakistan-India aerial conflict.
The Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) organized a webinar that united South Asian security experts, including Indian defence analysts, alongside international observers from the US and UK. Participants evaluated Pakistan’s swift response, missile range superiority and disciplined avoidance of airspace violations, establishing it as a model for asymmetric warfare. The discussion highlighted how these tactics elevated Pakistan’s global reputation for modern air combat effectiveness.
The Stimson Center and Hoover Institution co-hosted the “Lines of Fire” webinar featuring a rapid-response panel of Pakistani-American defence analysts, US military strategists and international relations experts from Indiana University. They analyzed Pakistan’s role in the standoff, commending its precise and calibrated response that deterred Indian jets without triggering full-scale escalation. Key discussions focused on the superior performance of the PL-15 missile against Western technology like the Rafale and how Pakistan’s multi-domain strategy shaped US-China-led mediation efforts, reinforcing its global strategic relevance. On 9 September, at 3:46 PM local time in Qatar, Israeli fighter jets and drones struck the Leqtaifiya district, killing at least six people. This attack, once again, thrust Pakistan into the global spotlight due to its demonstrated military capabilities and strategic geopolitical importance.
Pakistan has already established that the Pakistan Air Force is a formidable force. Discussions at the [Emergency] Arab-Islamic Extraordinary Summit suggested Pakistan could offer air defence expertise or systems to Qatar, amplifying its reputation as a key military player in regional crises. Additionally, Pakistan’s leadership has signaled readiness to bolster regional defence through joint exercises and potential deployment of air assets. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s call for an “Arab-Islamic task force” implied Pakistan’s willingness to contribute its battle-tested air and electronic warfare capabilities. This is positioning Pakistan as a pivotal military partner, drawing attention from global powers like the US and Russia.
The Israeli strike on Qatar has also prompted NATO and Middle Eastern defence forums, such as a closed-door session in Ankara (September 12, 2025), to analyze Pakistan’s electronic warfare (EW) systems, which had jammed Indian radars in May 2025. Experts speculated that Pakistan’s EW expertise could counter similar Israeli tactics, making it a focal point for nations seeking to enhance their defences against precision strikes.
On September 17 at 09:48 a.m. Saudi Arabia time, the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan ‘Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA)’ was announced, formalizing a bilateral defence pact wherein an act of aggression against one signatory is deemed a casus belli for both. Yes, the SMDA has significantly altered the geostrategic power dynamics of the region. Evidently, Saudi Arabia is diversifying its security alliances, pivoting from US-centric partnerships to a robust strategic alignment with Pakistan. As a nuclear-armed state, Pakistan’s commitment to provide mutual defence bolsters Saudi Arabia’s defensive posture. Yes, the SMDA is poised to reshape the broader regional power matrix through trilateral cooperation—encompassing Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and China—integrating joint military exercises, intelligence-sharing operations and economic synergy to enhance collective security and regional influence.
Pakistan’s defence forces have established a reputation as a formidable power in modern warfare, showcasing advanced capabilities in air superiority and integrated defence systems. Yes, the Israeli airstrike on Qatar amplified Pakistan’s global prominence. Yes, the Israeli airstrike on Qatar highlighted Pakistan’s strategic importance as a key regional player. From discussions at the Shangri-La Dialogue to its influential role at the Arab-Islamic Extraordinary Summit, Pakistan’s multi-domain defence strategy and Pakistan’s strategic geographical position have positioned it as a leading model for countering sophisticated regional threats.
—The writer is a journalist and political analyst who is currently also the executive director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS).
