THE evolving multipolarity generates optimism about the potential of connectivity between Central Asia and South Asia, promising economic prosperity through the enhancement of regional trade, energy, and transport infrastructure.
This optimism is further bolstered by leveraging of the historical Silk Road, a key factor in the region’s past and potentially its future. However, the increasing strategic competition between the great powers, instability in Afghanistan, the likelihood of war between India and Pakistan, and intra-state and inter-state conflicts in West Asia all undermine the prospects for the prosperity of emerging Asia. The rapid transformation in the global strategic environment has not reversed the decline of the West and concurrent rise of Asia. The shifts in the contemporary world order indicate a significant alteration of Western liberal international order (post World War II), providing an opportunity for Central and South Asian multidimensional connectivity, including oil, gas, hydropower and minerals.
China’s phenomenal rise, particularly in advanced areas of science and technology, and its economic connectivity through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), have led to a dramatic transformation in economic connectivity and the rise of Asia. BRI’s various corridors have opened the longstanding regional blockages in Central Asia and South Asia. Admittedly, there are still some complicated bilateral issues, especially in South Asia, that need to be resolved. Pakistan’s internal security and economic prosperity are closely tied to connectivity in Central and South Asia. The country’s National Security Policy is built on an economic strategy that aims to boost trade by improving the transnational infrastructure links between Central Asia and South Asia. These road and railway networks are not only enhancing economic security but also unlocking economic potential, freeing the Central Asian Republics and Afghanistan from landlocked limitations and connecting them with West Asia and the rest of the world via sea routes. Pakistan’s pivotal role in this connectivity cannot be overstated.
Organizations such as the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) would be the pillars of cooperation in Central and South Asia. Pakistan, being a member of these organizations, plays a pivotal role in bridging the two regions for economic prosperity and security stability. Additionally, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of the BRI, has enabled the country to become a transit hub and an energy corridor. Its sea, road, and railway networks leading to ports are providing opportunities for the landlocked Central Asian Republic and Afghanistan.
Pakistan and India’s full membership of the SCO has connected South Asia with the Central Asian Republics’ security paradigm, including China and Russia. On July 3, 2024, President Putin termed the SCO as ‘one of the key pillars of a far, multipolar world order’at the Organization’s summit in Astana. The SCO has mainly focused on security issues referred to as the three evil forces: terrorism, separatism, and extremism. However, its members have engaged in dialogue to adopt a new security paradigm, create a fair economic environment, and mitigate the repercussions of global warming. Indeed, these new SCO initiatives, particularly in addressing the non-traditional security challenges such as climate change and economic disparity, further Central-South Asia cooperation.
Admittedly, Pakistan’s capacity to contribute practically to Central and South Asia cooperation is hampered by its internal security situation, rivalry with India, and increasing mistrust of the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The strategic rivalry with the neighboring states has increased intra-state conflicts, increasing state-sponsored terrorism in Pakistan. Besides, climate change has devastating repercussions for internal security. The current floods unleashed havoc in Punjab and Sindh provinces. Therefore, the country continues to grapple with governance challenges, terrorist group attacks, economic fragility, social fragmentation, and climate vulnerability.
Pakistan has strived to play a constructive role in shaping the cooperative future of South and Central Asia. However, Afghanistan’s political and economic instability and the presence of sanctuaries of transnational terrorist syndicates in the country hinder the completion of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan’s railway network and various energy pipeline projects meant to channelize Central Asian energy resources to South Asia. India and Pakistan’s strategic rivalry is a fundamental obstacle to connectivity in Central Asia and South Asia. Therefore, the key initiatives include the Central Asia-South Asia Power Project (CASA-1000) and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, which remain on paper. The urgency of resolving this conflict through diplomatic means is imperative for Central-South Asia connectivity. This urgency cannot be overstated.
Ironically, currently, India’s ruling elite and military leadership are using combative language against Pakistan for domestic political consumption, which spoils all the initiatives to start a dialogue process between Islamabad and New Delhi for a peaceful resolution of their bilateral conflicts and an ensuing conducive environment for the regional connectivity in the near future. To conclude, the South Asian strategic environment is not conducive to regional connectivity; yet, Pakistan can play a pivotal role in enhancing connectivity through the development of Central and South Asian trade, energy, roads, railways, ports and pipelines.
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
