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Pak-BD new strategic equilibrium, South Asia

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AFTER 55 years, the truth has finally prevailed. Mohammad Ali Jinnah’s anniversary was celebrated in Dhaka, with speeches emphasizing the immense struggle of Bengali Muslims for the creation of Pakistan. The reality is that Pakistan came into being largely due to the efforts of the leadership from Bengal, Bihar and Central Provinces. The speeches in Dhaka underscored the shared bond between Pakistan and Bangladesh, with some speakers even discussing the notion of a common defence against India under a nuclear umbrella.

The political reality is that had there been no Pakistan, there wouldn’t have been any Bangladesh. There is no doubt that India manipulated the events of 1971, taking advantage of the follies of Pakistan’s leadership, which led to naked aggression against a sovereign state. This act was carried out in violation of all norms of international law as well as the Partition Act of 1935. The fact remains that Indian Hindu leadership never anticipated Pakistan’s stability, believing it would not last more than six months. However, the Almighty had His own plans. It should not be forgotten that in 1962, Pakistan had a golden opportunity to take over Kashmir despite having fewer forces. Unfortunately, American pressure on President Ayub (as revealed in declassified documents) prevented him from pursuing this course. Pakistan suffered immensely both strategically and internationally.

Operation Gibraltar was not meant to proceed, yet it went ahead. It was a well-planned operation, but once again, American pressure was responsible for halting it. The operation was stalled due to a change in command. The Indian attack on the borders was anticipated, although Pakistan’s Foreign Minister had assured there would be no attack on the international border. This assurance proved hollow. Pakistan was fully prepared to counter it, effectively nullifying Indian intelligence. India failed to cross the BRB Canal. In the aftermath of the 1965 war, India began planning subversive activities in East Pakistan, having observed during the war that the province was not well protected militarily due to Pakistan’s scarcity of resources. Pakistan had only about five and a half divisions and could not afford to divide its forces between the two wings. This weakness was exploited by the Indians, leading to the Agartala conspiracy.

There is no doubt that Mujib was involved in the Agartala conspiracy alongside India, as later revealed in RAW papers. Unfortunately, West Pakistani politicians, for their short-term gains, released Mujib after the roundtable conference, turning him into a hero in East Pakistan. There is no doubt that in East Pakistan, Martial Law was loosely enforced for multiple reasons, including a lack of law enforcement personnel and the absence of political will. This allowed Mujib Rahman to propagate an ethnic and economic agenda, fuelling sentiments in East Pakistan throughout the year leading up to the elections.

The elections were thoroughly rigged by the Awami League. As the Administrator of Noakhali district, I, the author, witnessed how the Awami League’s manipulation created a false majority. The party harassed other political groups, preventing them from fielding candidates against the Awami League. Muslim League workers were abducted, tortured and their families threatened. We apprehended several Awami League members engaged in these activities. This led to a flawed election result that handed all the seats to the Awami League, against the true wishes of the majority in East Pakistan.

The people of East Pakistan during the period of United Bengal in 1906 struggled to have a separate province by division of Bengal. The massive protests by Hindus in the follow up forced the British to do away partition in 1912. Bengali leadership were politically much more conscious than the Muslims Central and Northern India. They realised that they cannot win the battle alone. In 1906 Muslim League was formed in Dhaka and struggle for the Muslims commenced in real political terms. In 1936 elections it was only the Bengal which could secure Muslim seats as compared to the Central India which had few and far less, in the northern part of India, today West Pakistan the results were poorer.

Jinnah after 1936 elections made marathon tours of India to convince Muslims to rise for their rights and confront Congress on the other. Far right Muslim scholars as well as bureaucratic elements including the Punjab feudal were against Pakistan. It was only in 1946 elections, seeing the wind of change Muslims feudal families of Punjab decided to support Muslim League. The British had limited options. To continue, India as one state needed a large force level, or handed over to Congress who claimed to be the majority party or partition India. The DNA of the Bengali people, their political Acumen always is superior to the other Brother Muslims in the Northern part of India and Punjab.

Lahore Resolution was also tabled by Bengali leadership. The most important, even in 1946 when Pakistan had become a reality, Bengali leadership felt that independent East Pakistan may not be able to withstand the military and economic pressures from India due to its location. They unanimously decided for a federal set-up after partition. It is unfortunate that Jinnah died very soon and the subsequent Muslim League leadership of the West Pakistan indulged in the power game for many years. They could not reach to a consensus constitution. It resulted in the political void within the polity and governance of Pakistan allowing the military to take over. The rest is history.

A significant effort was made to elevate East Pakistan’s development to the level of West Pakistan, virtually from scratch. Space does not permit a detailed list of the Pakistani government’s achievements, but by 1970, the bureaucracy in East Pakistan, which once stood at zero, was brought on par with that of West Pakistan. Likewise, federal allocations in the Sixth Plan favoured East Pakistan more than West Pakistan. However, the continuity of martial law stifled democratic sentiments among the people, fostering disenchantment with the federal government. Meanwhile, West Pakistani politicians remained preoccupied with power struggles.

In 1968, the Indian Prime Minister tasked RAW (as noted in RAW Papers) with carrying out subversion and sabotage in the aftermath of the 1965 war. RAW worked to create the false perception that West Pakistan was exploiting East Pakistan’s resources, obscuring the reality. As is often said, perception matters, and no amount of logic can convince people otherwise. This is precisely what occurred in Pakistan.

The people of East Pakistan were the true founders of Pakistan, but the creation of Bangladesh, following India’s naked aggression and the actions of the Awami League, struck at the soul of East Pakistan’s population. They did not vote for the Awami League to bring about separation and this discontent became evident when Mujib was killed in 1975.

In the 1980s, there were efforts by both Bangladesh and Pakistan to explore the idea of a confederation or union. However, these efforts were sabotaged by India. President Irshad was deposed and killed, and later Zia-ur-Rahman also met the same fate. During Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule, she imposed a regime of suppression, systematically erasing any signs of Pakistan’s foundational history. The people of Bangladesh have since realized they were deceived by India, leading to a rising wave of dissent within the country.

Nevertheless, India is not going to sit idle. The strategic dynamics, not only in the subcontinent but also in the rim of states surrounding the Indian Ocean, have changed. Conspiracies have already begun in India against the new Bangladesh government, aiming to belittle them as mere proxies of Pakistan in a fifth-generation war and to cut off their sources of commerce with India. Although traders are urging the government not to take such actions, arguing that the loss would be greater for India than for Bangladesh, Pakistan must step forward to offer all economic and business avenues to Bangladesh to fill the gap that India is trying to create.

There is serious talk in India about possible military action against Bangladesh to secure the Chicken Neck area and the Sylhet division as well as to create unrest within Bangladesh. The strategic locations of Chittagong Port and Cox’s Bazar, currently being developed by China, along with the issue of Saint Martin Island, are likely to become major friction points in the coming days. Pakistan must put its own house in order to ensure that it is in a position to fully support Bangladesh. At this moment, fostering the best possible friendly relations in commerce, trade, political space and defence is crucial. I have consistently asserted over the past few years in my writings that the defence of Bangladesh will be significantly strengthened through collaboration with nuclear Pakistan and the support of international powers. Indian aggression in various forms should not be ignored.

Bangladesh has great strategic potential to cooperate with Pakistan, ensuring that both flanks of the Indian subcontinent are covered by these two friendly countries to prevent Indian dominance over the Indian Ocean and the sea routes to the Straits of Malacca. During the Musharraf era, delegations from Bangladesh’s business and academic sectors frequently visited Pakistan, sponsored by the Pakistani government. However, this practice was halted by Hasina. It is essential to restore and support this practice, alongside establishing direct international flights at subsidized fares. Additionally, shipping services for both cargo and passengers should be restarted and private shipping companies should be invited to participate. There is a possibility that India will attempt to disrupt both air and sea routes, yet a strong Pakistan can overcome these hurdles by blocking India’s efforts.

—The writer is a senior researcher and analyst. He regularly contributes to the national press.

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