Near-normal rains and above-normal temperatures are predicted in Pakistan during January 2026.
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), currently in a marginally negative phase, is expected to shift to a neutral phase and remain in the same phase for the forecast month.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and is expected to persist in the same phase during the forecast month.
Based on this analysis, a general tendency for near-normal rainfall is anticipated across most parts of the country during January 2026, with slightly negative anomalies over northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Gilgit-Baltistan and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may get below normal rainfall, whereas western parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northwestern parts of Balochistan are likely to receive above normal rainfall during January 2026.
Central and southern regions, including Sindh, southern Punjab, and much of Balochistan, are expected to remain close to climatological averages. A localised area of slightly above-normal rainfall is indicated over northwestern Pakistan, likely associated with winter western disturbance activity, while no widespread extreme anomalies are anticipated; nevertheless, localised extreme rainfall events cannot be ruled out.
Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide, with maximum departure over Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in January 2026.
The likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions is particularly strong over northern regions, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir, as well as southern Pakistan, including Sindh and the coastal belt of Balochistan, for the month of January 2026.
Impacts: Normal rainfall is likely to support Rabi crop growth, particularly in rain-fed regions. However, in the southern parts of the country, Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab, near-normal rainfall combined with above-normal daytime temperatures and generally low climatological rainfall is unlikely to substantially improve soil moisture conditions.
As a result, soil moisture stress is expected to persist in these areas, which may adversely affect crop growth during the period. Above-normal temperatures may accelerate crop development, leading to early maturation, particularly in central to southern areas. This could shorten the grain-filling stage of early-sown wheat and barley, potentially resulting in reduced yields.
Dry conditions with slightly above-normal temperatures in January 2026 will favour post-harvest handling and storage of rice, reducing losses from residual moisture or delayed drying. Above-normal temperatures in January 2026, particularly over southern regions, are unlikely to increase vector-borne disease risk, as prevailing winter conditions remain unfavourable for mosquito activity across Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan.
Near-normal rainfall in January 2026 may limit reservoir replenishment, particularly in regions dependent on January precipitation for water storage. Water management authorities should closely monitor reservoir levels and prepare contingency measures should dry conditions persist.
A decline in air quality may result in smog formation in the plains of the country, posing health risks for sensitive groups, particularly children and the elderly. This can exacerbate respiratory illnesses, particularly affecting those with asthma or other chronic lung conditions.
The dryness and cool nights are expected to promote fog formation, especially in Punjab and adjoining areas of northern Sindh. Reduced visibility due to fog could disrupt highway travel and cause delays at major roadways and airports, particularly during late night and early hours of the day.
