No-confidence motion and Imran Khan
RECENTLY-submitted No-Confidence Motion is very well calculated move of the Opposition against the PTI ruling coalition.
There is no precedent in Pakistan’ political history of any elected government having been removed through a vote of no-confidence.
Pakistani politics seem to have taken an ominous side with the Opposition alliance finally tabling no-confidence motion against Imran Khan.
The decision demonstrates the confidence of the united opposition that it has mustered enough votes in the National Assembly to oust Premier Imran Khan.
It will be hardly a week of uncertainty before the voting takes place.Given the unpredictability of our politics, nothing can be taken for granted at this stage.
There has been a major shift in our political scene over the last few months with the two main opposition parties – PML-N and PPP – joining hands against the PTI government.
The perception that the military leadership has distanced itself from the government has given boost to the Opposition.
The widening cracks within the PTI may mark the end game.The growing ranks of dissidents have worsened the woes of Imran Khan.
The latest revolt against CM Punjab signals the unravelling of the party that could also threaten the survival of Imran Khan rule.
In order to increase pressure on PTI government, the other day, PPP planned a march on the capital before the no-confidence vote which further increased the political temperature.
The PTI government is feeling the heat, as is evident by Imran Khan’s move to appease his estranged coalition partners.
It is not only the Opposition leaders who have been target of his attack.He has also publicly slammed the West for what he describes as their double standards.
It is rare for a head of government to deploy a sensitive foreign policy matter for domestic political purposes.
The Opposition alliance is all geared up for the final battle Imran Khan is vowing to fight till the end.
His decision to go to the public seems to be a desperate move to salvage the badly handled political situation.
But that may not help prevent the slide underway.His speech at a public rally in south Punjab recently indicates that he is fumbling under pressure.
His populist thundering has further exposed his vulnerability.It seems to be a deliberate move on the part of the Premier Imran Khan to reinforce the theory of a foreign conspiracy against him.
It is a typical ploy of populist politics to play the nationalist card in times of crises.But the gimmickry is unlikely to work as the situation is completely slipping out of his control.
Premier Imran Khan’s indiscretion and irresponsible statements in the past seriously damaged our diplomatic relations.
His latest comments at a recent public rally were most inappropriate and exposed his lack of understanding of critical foreign and security policy issues.
The PML-Q will not accept anyone other than Pervaiz Elahi as the CM.With the no-confidence motion hanging over Imran Khan the PML-Q has upped its stakes.
The party’s bargaining position seems to have been further strengthened with the offer by the Opposition to give the top position of Punjab to the PML-Q leader.
The most serious political challenge encountered by PTI has completed more than three and half years of its rule.
It is the internal party revolt that presents a bigger problem for the PTI rule – more than the challenge from the Opposition alliance.
It seems that Imran Khan is ready to dump his hand-picked CM Punjab, Usman Buzdar, in order to defuse the rebellion within the party but the move may have come too late.
There is no likelihood that Imran Khan would hand over the most powerful post in the key province to a coalition partner.
The schism in the party is too serious to be resolved by patchwork tactics.Given its very thin majority in the Punjab Assembly the PTI government’s fall seems imminent if the PML-Q decides to pull out the rug from under it.
That would alter the entire political dynamics in the country.It is evident that despite controlling the government the PTI has lost the popular political space in Punjab.
Besides other factors, Imran Khan’s choice of CM has been a major reason for the erosion of the ruling party’s political base in the province.
A change in the government in Punjab would have a domino effect inevitably leading to the collapse of the existing dispensation.
The Premier Imran Khan’ move to mobilise public opinion with his populist rhetoric is not likely to change the unfolding power dynamics at all.
It will not be difficult for the Opposition alliance to buy the loyalties of the PTI dissidents.It is a murky power game with the members going for the highest offer.
What happens next will also depend on whether the security establishment stays neutral in the game.
The outcome of the no-confidence vote would determine the future course of politics in the country.
The ouster of the PTI government may not end the prevailing political uncertainty.There is still no agreement among the Opposition parties over the next move if the no-confidence motion succeeds.
And a defeat for the Opposition could lead to the government turning more authoritarian.It is not surprising to see the growing discontent in the PTI’s ranks in Punjab.
Without resolving the Punjab government crisis, it would be extremely difficult for PM Khan to defeat the no-confidence motion.
The Opposition claims that many PTI MNAs from the province would be willing to jump ship if they are assured of a ticket from the PML-N in the next elections.
—The writer is editor, book ambassador, political analyst and author of several books based in Islamabad.
