ISLAMABAD – Nearly normal rains and warmer nights are expected in Pakistan during July 2024, says the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
Per the synoptic situation, neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to persist during July 2024. Considering the prevailing neutral phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), nearly normal rains and temperatures are likely in most parts of the country during the current month.
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: Overall a tendency for near normal rainfall is expected in most parts of Pakistan during July 2024. However, northeastern Punjab and lower Sindh may get slightly above normal rainfall.
Monthly Temperature Outlook: The day temperatures are expected to remain nearly normal over most of the country. However, northern parts (Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan), will remain warmer than normal. Concurrently, warmer than normal minimum temperatures are expected nationwide with maximum departure over northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and southwestern Balochistan.
Impacts: Isolated and localized extreme rainfall events can trigger flash flooding in mountainous areas of Punjab, AJK and KP, urban flooding in big metropolitan areas and hill torrents in Southern Punjab, and Balochistan.
Above normal temperatures in mountainous areas of Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir may accelerate snowmelt, increasing inflow in Upper Indus and Kabul Rivers, along with chance of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Due to extreme hydro-meteorological events over catchments, riverine floods can’t be ruled out.
Current atmospheric conditions may trigger dust-storms and thunderstorms posing risks to crops, buildings, and infrastructure in the region. Sufficient water availability for irrigation and power sectors will be a good impact.
