India’s population has reached 1,425,775,850 people, surpassing the number of people in mainland China, according to the UN’s estimates.
India’s decennial census scheduled to be held in 2021 has been delayed, so there’s no official population data. China’s most recent – and seventh census – was conducted in 2020.
To estimate and project populations of both India and China, the UN relies on information about levels and trends in fertility, mortality and migration acquired from records, surveys and administrative data.
What is clear is that both India and China have more than 1.4 billion people each, and for over 70 years have accounted for more than a third of the global population.
China’s population is likely to begin shrinking next year. Last year, 10.6 million people were born, a little more than the number of deaths, thanks to a rapid drop in fertility rate. According to the UN, the Chinese population will continue to fall and could drop to below a billion before the end of the century.
India’s fertility rate has also fallen substantially in recent decades – from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to two births per woman today – but the rate of decline has been slower. India’s population is virtually certain to continue to grow for several decades – the UN expects the population to peak around 2064, and then decline gradually.
Investments in public health and increased education for women and their participation in the workforce, among other things, also contributed to the decline in fertility.—INP
