The Indian elections have finally ended and Narendra Modi has taken the oath for a third term as the Indian Prime Minister. During the election campaign Narendra Modi and his Hindu fundamentalist rhetoric seemed very real and it appeared that the original India of Secular philosophy will now end to give birth to a Hindu Majority and a Hindu state. Fortunately the Indian voters have managed to put breaks on Modi’s insane drive to change the fundamental political ethics of the Indian democracy. In spite of the BJP victory and Modi’s third term the final vote count shows that Indian democracy is alive and flourishing and in far better shape than the predictions of political analysts and social scientists.
The most glaring and significant result of the vote count is that Modi has been denied his cherished goal of grabbing over 400 seats and now has to form a govt. with the help of some coalition partners. The BJP will not be the sole power wieldier in the new govt.the BJP will lack a free hand for further repression of civil society, imprisonment of the opposition, infiltration and takeover of democratic institutions, and persecution of Muslims. Although Mr. Modi will surely not abandon his Hindu nationalist drive, now there will be stronger checks and balances, with a revived opposition.
Modi fought the elections with loud and clear shouts of winning over 400 seats in the Lok Sabha of 543 seats that needs only 272 seats to form a govt. ironically the BJP won only 240 seats that is 63 less than the last elections and will now need the help of coalition partners to form the new govt.
The long-troubled opposition Indian National Congress led by Rahul Gandhi won 99 seats, a stunning increase of 47 from the last election; also pivotal were the victories of several regional parties. The BJP was devastated in the largest Indian state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) where they lost on 29 seats and suffered a loss of 14 seats in Maharashtra the home of India’s business and commerce.
The BJP suffered a defeat in the Ayodhia constituency in North India where Modi inaugurated the Ram Mandir on the ruins of the demolished Babri Masjid and this is a big symbolic defeat in the midst of a heavily Hindu populated area. During the last two terms of Narendra Modi India has seen an overwhelming economic growth but despite this the ordinary voter is worried about inflation, price spiral, unemployment and attacks on the Muslim minority.
The voting pattern is definitely a protest movement against the dictatorial attitude and the dangerous and combustible mixof religion and politics shown by Modi during his previous term as PM. Modi has been drifting towards communalism and authoritarianism but the common man of India is worried that if he gets an absolute majority in parliament he would attempt to amend and change the constitution, destroy the basic fabric of a secular society and also disenfranchise some minority groups like the Muslims.
Never before in the history of India has a political leader used religion so blatantly to project his political agenda as Modi has done throughout his political career.Before the voting, Mr. Modi encouraged a cult of personality around his leadership. He claimed that God sent him to rule India.
When his mother was alive, he said, “I had believed that perhaps my birth was a biological one,” but “after her death, when I look at my life experiences, I’m convinced that God has sent me here.” In the period before the balloting, the Modi administration froze some of the opposition’s bank accounts, jailed leaders on corruption- and tax-related charges, and basked in laudatory coverage by media outlets controlled by Modi allies.During the Modi rule social media outlets were used extensively to launch a hate campaign against the biggest minority group that s the Muslim community. Under Narendra Modi India was a Hindu Nationalist Country and India was under the rule of religious mobs of bigoted fundamentalist Hindu nationalists with the lynching and targeting of innocent Muslims and Christians. During his election campaign Modi very critically vilified the Muslims accusing them of stealing the wealth of the nation.Overall, there were valid fears within India and abroad that Mr. Modi’s rise meant the death knell of truly competitive politics in the world’s largest democracy. Fortunately, that prospect has been dampened if not blocked by the election outcome.
For any democratic society elections are necessary and vital but this is just one element of a thriving and prospering democracy. What goes on between elections is really important. The rule of law and the functioning of the civil society, Human rights, Civil liberties, religious freedom, freedom of speech and thought and respect for democratic values are equally important. Right now we cannot predict how Narendra Modi will behave after this election set back will he continue his politics of Fundamentalist Hinduism or will he learn a lesson from this debacle and respect the basic principle of the Indian constitution that is undiluted secular democracy.
But Modi cannot ignore the fact that his party lost ground in this election. Modi’s support as a strongman facing the rest of the world may be intact, but the BJP’s strong-arm approach domestically seems to have made the electorate wary. The climate corollary is that, while India’s international stance on climate change is popular, the BJP’s approach at the local level has been less effective (notwithstanding the borderless nature of most pollution).
Constituents do not seem to be able to connect the dots on how BJP climate policies benefit them. The air is still polluted, clean water remains scarce, heat is reaching unlivable levels, and climate catastrophes keep occurring. To shore up his party, Modi likely will start connecting these dots by promoting new, farmer-friendly alternatives to burning crop residues, doing more on water recycling and floodwater detention/retention, and making lower-carbon cooking fuels more accessible. Look for new programs, or revamping of existing programs, in these areas.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
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