As I write on Sunday, November 3rd, it is only three days to the U.S. elections! Many in Pakistan are convinced that Donald Trump will be the winner followed by the argument that “U.S. will not vote for a female President”. That may be true for U.S. males. Arguably, Donald Trump has been a unique phenomenon on the U.S. political stage and he won when no one thought that he had a chance – powered by the males. However, that was a one-time fluke and I have always contended that he is a passing fancy – a cult type figure for the minority of Americans, not a leader of the majority. Being a con-artist, grifter and salesman, he fooled the majority of the U.S. electorate once, but he cannot do it repeatedly. His character leaves much to be desired for decent people to vote him into the presidency again and again. In life as in politics, character matters!
Hence, my prediction is that not only will the U.S. elect the first women president of color in its history, but the win will be a blowout. Kamala will win more than 320 of the 539 electoral votes and some of the traditional Republican states such as North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa and others will go blue in this election cycle. How is this possible when Republicans actually have more registered voters than the Democrats for the first time in decades? Answer is two pronged: women power and Gen Z. First, U.S. women have had it with the male hegemony for the past 250 years. To add insult to injury, Trump and his cohorts have a proven record of insulting women, abusing their male privilege and acting in the most misogynistic manner. To top it off, they took away women’s right to choose by not allowing abortions, even in the worst cases of rape, incest and threat to life. These factors have not gone down well with women and they are turning out in droves to vote. And, they are not voting as dictated by their party or the wishes of the husbands. 1 in 8 women in a poll have admitted that they have secretly voted for Kamala. Additionally, as of now almost 50% of the Americans have voted early and women’s share of the vote is 9% higher than males; 53% to 44%. It is interesting to note that although the overall vote split of the 73 million votes cast is 40% Republican, 40% Democrat and 20% others, the wind seems to be favoring Kamala. How is it so? It is predominantly the women.
Unlike the pre-election polls that are prone to mistakes, exit polls are much more accurate and they are showing interesting results. Women are not only voting in larger numbers than males, but they are voting for Kamala. Leaving aside Kamala’s lead in the traditional blue states or the blue-wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, exit polls are showing notable outcomes in traditional red states such as Georgia and North Carolina. In NC, the split of votes cast is 33% registered Democrats, 34% registered Republicans and 33% Undecideds. That should bode well for the Republicans since they have higher number of votes in their favor and Undecideds in a red state typically lean red. But here is where the women power kicks in.
Despite the even split above, the exit polls are showing that Kamala has a 6 point lead (51% Kamala, 45% Trump). Georgia is an even better case study with clearer lines. Off the votes cast to date, 45% are registered Democrats, 48% are Republicans and only 7% are undecided. Clearly, Republicans have a lead with a few Undecideds and being a deep red state, these numbers would seal Kamala’s fate. However, the exit polls are showing Kamala with a commanding 7 point lead (51% Kamala, 44% Trump). Clearly, Republican women are voting for Kamala. It is also notable that both these states have a substantial black population and although the blacks delivered these states, either NC and/or Georgia, to Obama or Biden in 2008, 2012, and 2020 by voting overwhelmingly (85%+) in favor of democratic candidates, Kamala has the least percentage of black votes coming to her (75%) in this cycle due to lack of support of guess who – the black men. So, despite low black-men support, Kamala is leading in the exit polls, thanks to women.
Gen Z is the other factor that is playing an oversized role in Kamala’s victory. In a previous article, I had written that Gen Z is emerging as a potent force on the world stage. They have challenged the establishments in Pakistan, Thailand, Bangladesh, France and the UK in the past year and they are now doing the same for Kamala. Whereas Gen Z are the least motivated to vote in past elections, young voters nationally have blown past their early voter turnout projection by 20%. Early voting turnout in Georgia among ages 18-24 is at 225,000+ as of Saturday – more than any other 5-year set of voters between ages 25-39. Gen Z is becoming a force to reckon with in the world! Kamala will win per my prediction but the forces behind her win leave a lesson for Pakistan. Donald Trump ignored the women and the youth, and will pay a price for it. Pakistan continues to ignore its women and its youth, and it will never progress unless we empower our women and youth.
—The writer is a former Senior Advisor to the Government and a sector development specialist. He is on the Governing Council of Non-Resident Pakistanis (NRPs) in US.
