Hassan Ahmad
THE 1996 Ganges Water Treaty between India and Bangladesh is set to expire in December 2026 and tensions are rising over the sharing of the Ganges River’s waters.
Bangladesh has urged India to revise the treaty, demanding a guaranteed 40,000 cusecs of water instead of the current 35,000. Ironically, India has refused to increase the water share citing growing domestic requirements. Obviously, India is exploiting treaty loopholes and the weak Joint Rivers Commission, leaving Bangladesh vulnerable to droughts, floods and agricultural losses without effective dispute resolution.
Unilateral weaponization of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) against Pakistan amid self-style post Pehalgam terror attack rhetoric reflects peculiar exploitation pattern of Modi regime. The Ganges Water Treaty was signed in 1996 to resolve decades of disputes over the sharing of the river waters between India and Bangladesh. The treaty established a water-sharing formula based on the availability of water at Farakka, with Bangladesh receiving a guaranteed minimum of 35,000 cusecs during the dry season. While the treaty provided a framework for cooperation, it also remained under criticism for inbuilt limitations, including the lack of effective dispute resolution mechanisms.
Bangladesh’s demand for a higher share of water is driven by its growing population and agricultural needs. The country claims that it receives less than its agreed share of Ganges water during the dry season, with studies showing that India often fails to deliver the required amount between March and May. India, on the other hand, argues that it has limited water resources and cannot meet Bangladesh’s demands. This evolving water share dispute has significant implications for both countries. Bangladesh is heavily dependent on the Ganges for its agriculture, industry and drinking water.
The lack of effective dispute resolution mechanisms has led to tensions between the two countries, with Bangladesh accusing India of manipulating water releases using over-exaggerated demands. In 2024, water discharge from India’s Farakka and Teesta Barrages into Bangladesh surged by 57% and 82%, respectively displacing 4.9 million people and causing significant economic losses. The flooding also destroyed 1.1 million tons of rice, forcing Bangladesh to import more rice to meet the domestic needs.
The treaty does not guarantee a minimum flow of water to Bangladesh. It lacks enforceable provisions for minimum water supply or consideration of increased climate variability impacting water flow. The Ganges Water Treaty has also failed to address environmental concerns, including rising salinity, siltation and ecological risks to the Sundarbans delta and mangrove forests. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN has stated that the flooding and rising salinity in 2024 disrupted fish habitats in the Sundarbans and nearby rivers, hitting local fish stocks and fisheries-based livelihoods.
The losses in fisheries were estimated at USD 478 million. As the treaty approaches its expiry date, it is essential for India and Bangladesh to revisit the agreement and address the concerns of both countries. Since the flawed 1996 water treaty was signed during Sheikh Hasina’s pro-India tenure hence it has failed in safeguarding the interests of Bangladesh. Seeing the exploitative stance of India on IWT, Bangladesh should tackle the dispute very cautiously.
—The writer is contributing columnist.
