Biden Administration has made extensive efforts to avert an escalation of armed conflict in the Middle East area. Currently, a de facto regional conflict is underway, presenting several opportunities for mistakes and escalating responses that are inherent to such conflicts. Similar to a frog in a pot of water that is gradually heating up, the region may suddenly become aware that it is now engaged in a full-scale battle. The escalating war poses a growing threat that might potentially engulf the United States. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is now undertaking a tour to the Middle East with the objective of curbing the escalating hostilities.
Examine only the recent days: The head of an Iranian-based militia in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, was killed on Thursday as a result of a US drone attack. Since the October 7 attack by Hamas in Israel, Iranian-supported militias in Iraq and Syria have carried out a minimum of 118 assaults on US forces in Syria and Iraq. The strike on Baghdad was a deliberate gamble undertaken by the Biden administration, particularly given the increasing demands in Iraq to remove some 2,500 US soldiers who are currently stationed in the country with the objective of combating ISIS. The Baghdad walkout has intensified the demands to remove US soldiers, as reported by the prominent Arabic-language newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat.
The Houthis, an Iranian-backed militia that has significant authority over Yemen, have carried out 23 attacks on commercial boats in the Red Sea since November 19. These strikes, conducted with a range of missiles, drones, and sea-based drones, are believed to be in support of Hamas. The Red Sea route leading to the Suez Canal is renowned as one of the most heavily trafficked maritime passages globally. Consequently, some prominent shipping corporations have halted their activities in this region.
The US and many ally governments sent a warning to the Houthis on Wednesday, urging them to cease their attacks on commercial vessels or face undetermined repercussions. Subsequently, the United States sank three Houthi speedboats in the Red Sea, three days after their attempt to capture a commercial vessel. Saleh al-Arouri, a prominent Hamas commander, was assassinated on Tuesday in Beirut, Lebanon, as a result of a targeted drone attack. This incident further exacerbates the escalating hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. Since October 7, there have been frequent reciprocal exchanges of gunfire between the two parties along the Israel-Lebanon border. Al-Arouri was assassinated in a region of Beirut under the control of Hezbollah, who have pledged to retaliate for his demise.
Israel initiated aerial bombardments in the Syrian capital, Damascus, on Monday, targeting what it claimed to be Syrian military objectives. Hezbollah forces provided assistance to the Syrian regime during the Syrian civil war, and the regime has openly expressed its support for Hamas. Furthermore, on Thursday, ISIS asserted accountability for two suicide bombings that occurred during a commemorative event for the prominent Iranian military figure, General Qasim Suleimani, resulting in the death of a minimum of 84 individuals. ISIS is a Sunni extremist organization that considers the Shia clerics who govern Iran to be heretical. Incidents of Sunni jihadist organizations carrying out attacks within Iran have been few, and this particular incident signifies a notable increase in aggression by ISIS towards Iran. The officials of Iran have pledged to retaliate against the terrorist organization.
The escalating hostilities in the area are partially attributed to the advancements in military technology witnessed in the previous two decades, as well as the proliferation of proxy warfare in the Middle East over the same timeframe. Prior to the 9/11 attacks, it is important to remember that there were no weaponized unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) capable of executing precise strikes at a considerable distance from the attacker’s location. The utilization of weaponized unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by the United States has been a defining characteristic of the “war on terror.” Presently, other nations such as Israel and factions like the Houthis have also embraced this strategy.
Iran has significantly expanded its influence in the Middle East by supporting proxy groups aligned with its interests. This trend was triggered in part by the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Iran provides substantial financial support to Hezbollah in Lebanon, trains militants in its facilities, and maintains a military presence in Syria. Additionally, it supports the Houthi rebels in Yemen and provides weaponry to Hamas. The reliance on armed drones and proxies by the US, Israel, and Iran carries risks of escalation towards full-scale conflict. The historical unpredictability of warfare highlights the potential for seemingly minor incidents to escalate, as seen in past conflicts like World War I.
—The author is Director ORIC and Asstt Prof, IR, MY University, Islamabad.
views expressed are writer’s own.
