Since last few months, United States is massively reforming its economic sector under President Donald Trump.
In past few days, the major flashpoints is the issue of H-1B visas. Indian nationals make up nearly 74% of all H-1B holders in the United States, mostly employed by major Indian IT firms like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro. These companies have long benefitted from U.S. visa policies to supply inexpensive labor to American corporations. But this has drawn criticism domestically for depressing wages and taking away jobs from American workers. In 2025, the Trump administration introduced a dramatic increase in H-1B visa fees from $10,000 to $100,000 per application, leading to a significant 40% rejection rate for Indian applicants (USCIS, March 2025). This policy shift dealt a major blow to the Indian IT sector and the remittances that once bolstered the Indian economy.
Additionally, India’s skewed trade practices have raised red flags in Washington. In 2024, India exported $118.9 billion worth of goods to the United States while importing only $73.9 billion, resulting in a $45 billion trade deficit (USTR, 2025). India’s protective tariffs, particularly on U.S. agricultural and dairy exports, have harmed American farmers and small businesses, while flooding the U.S. market with Indian goods. The situation is further complicated by India’s purchase of 1.9 million barrels of Russian oil per day (IEA, Dec 2024), undermining Western sanctions on Moscow. These deals, done at discounted rates, allow India to profit while forcing Washington to spend billions enforcing secondary sanctions. India has long pursued an aggressive posture in South Asia, often seeking to project itself as a regional hegemon. In early 2025, during the visit of U.S. Vice President JD Vance, orchestrated a false flag operation in Pahalgam Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). The objective was to implicate Pakistan and justify military escalation, including potential abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty (1960). However, the operation failed to produce the intended results. The international community, increasingly aware of India’s track record of covert operations and internal repressionparticularly towards minorities such as Sikhsdid not buy into the narrative. Pakistan, on the other hand, offered cooperation for a joint investigation and clearly denied involvement. In its Operation Sindoor, India failed to garner international sympathy, but it also exposed its credibility deficit on the global stage. Worse, the escalation ultimately triggered a limited but intense military conflict between India and Pakistan in early May 2025.On the night of May 6–7, 2025, with tacit approval from its strategic partners, India launched military strikes on Pakistan, expecting a swift victory. The Pakistani military responded with professionalism and force, inflicting significant losses on the Indian side. Despite the use of advanced Western weaponry, including Israeli support and Rafale aircraft, the Indian military could not sustain the momentum.As the situation worsened, India sought US mediation for a ceasefire. Pakistan’s strong retaliatory capability had turned the tide. President Trump later acknowledged his role in brokering the ceasefire on more than 100 occasions, including during his address to the United Nations General Assembly on September 25, 2025. India’s foreign policy alignments have also raised questions about its reliability as a U.S. partner. The U.S. had long tolerated India’s strategic engagements with countries under sanctions, such as Iran. For years, India continued developing the Chabahar Port, an Iranian project; despite the global embargo. While most U.S. allies were discouraged from engaging economically with Tehran, India enjoyed a waiver. This exemption has now been revoked by the Trump administration, citing national security concerns and unfair economic leverage. Moreover, New Delhi’s increasingly close military and intelligence ties with Israel have come under scrutiny, especially following the military coordination observed during the May conflict with Pakistan. The cumulative effect of these developments has led many in Washington to reassess the India-US relationship. Once considered a key counterweight to China, India is now seen in some quarters as a strategic liability. Its economic and military dependence on Western support is stark, and its ambitions to act as a regional hegemon appear increasingly unsustainable.
The Trump administration’s recent policy shifts indicate a growing recognition that the Indo-US relationship needs recalibration. In a striking symbolic move, Washington has begun discussions to retake Bagram Air Base from the Taliban, indicating a renewed focus on Afghanistan and Central Asia; possibly as a counterweight to both India and China.
Despite current tensions, many scholars and diplomats remain hopeful that India and US will soon mend their ties. However, India must seriously reconsider its regional policies and diplomatic behavior. A lasting partnership with regional states cannot be sustained on the basis of coercion, unilateralism, or unreciprocated benefits. Respect for international norms, genuine cooperation, and peaceful resolution of disputes with Pakistan. In his address at the 80th UN General Assembly in September 2025, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif extended an olive branch to India, offering peace talks on contentious issues such as Kashmir and water sharing. This gesture highlights an opportunity for New Delhi to adopt a more balanced and reconciliatory approach in South Asia. India’s bid for regional dominance and overreliance on Western support have exposed its limitations, both strategically and diplomatically. As the US recalibrates its foreign policy under President Trump’s second term, it is clear that blind strategic indulgence of India is no longer tenable. New Delhi must now choose between clinging to unfulfilled hegemonic ambitions or re-engaging with its neighbors and allies in a spirit of mutual respect, diplomacy, and peaceful coexistence.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
