Alternate to Biden’s national security plan
BIDEN’S China, Russia centric National Security (NS) Plan is a divided worldview of America. Removed from reality, it is bound to fail.
Biden has named India as its ally, but resurgent India will continue to run with hare and hunt with hounds (Trump’s Afghan Legacy, Pak Observer).
Knowing Washington, the relationship would hit roadblocks sooner than later. America needs an alternate Asia-Pacific approach with China and Russia as friends so that India (Chanakya) escapes Machiavellian fate and everyone can benefit from Asian Century.
After ME and Afghanistan, Europe has been broken on the pretext of the Ukraine war. No one can ignore anti-NATO protests in Germany and France. Macron refuses to attack Russia even if Ukraine is attacked.
He cautioned prudence to Biden (ECP) on nuclear Armageddon and opposes NATO by seeking independent Europe.
Merkel supported the pro-China view in her Kerr Foundation address. It opens the door for collaboration with Asia instead of confrontation.
Biden is relying on offensive policies to protect America’s vital trade and security interests. Like his successive predecessors, they are bound to fail historically.
Both Obama and Trump did not get Trans-Pacific Partnership deals (13 Nov 2016, the Guardian & 23 Jan 2017 the NY Times).
America should acknowledge the contribution of China also for improving American living standards with cheap goods, buying American debt and creating jobs by sending millions of Chinese students to the USA.
By releasing ahead of US mid-term elections in November, Biden is matching GoP America policy of forever wars which he promised to end in his election campaign.
The positive Russian economic forecasts show that alternate systems work (IMF, Goldman Sachs and Economists).
Ukraine is a strategic miscalculation of the West with the UK and Europe its victims. The era of cheap energy in Europe is ending as Russia redirects its energy infrastructure including Siberia to Asia.
If Europe fails to restart Nord Stream setups, the loss could be permanent. That is why America should respect Saudi Arabia for providing cheap oil for decades instead of blaming it for high oil prices while doing the same.
Saudi Arabia has rejected US criticism of OPEC+ quota cut decision (12 Oct 2022 Bloomberg).
German Minister criticizes US over ‘astronomical’ natural gas prices (5 Oct 2022, CNBC). Norway blamed Europe for high energy costs due to spot buying instead of making long-term deals.
With no discount for its European neighbours, Norway will earn $109bn from its public owned petroleum sector in 2022.
As part of a balanced approach, Washington should have strong relations with Saudi Arabia, other Gulf countries and Iran without any delay.
Ukraine was getting 30 to 40 percent cheap oil and gas from Russia as an energy hub which fuelled Europe and its economy.
Kiev was also getting billions in return for allowing the pipelines to pass through the country and maintaining the infrastructure.
It was corruption, inept leadership and foreign collaboration which have destroyed Ukraine and Europe.
America should play its role to end the Ukraine war for collective prosperity. The Minsk Agreement is a good starting point. All parties have achieved their aims.
Europe is divided. NATO has ended. Putin has expanded Russia, established a parallel financial system and secured a bigger energy market in Asia including China and India.
Delhi got CAATSA (American sanctions) removed allowing it to have trade, military and technology deals with the East and the West.
India’s glittering policies and numbers in the region are part of America’s Indo-Pacific China policy.
Its mega projects can deliver good results if India can control corruption, preserve democracy and observe rule of law. Russian energy deals will help finance India’s mega national infrastructure projects.
India has replaced Europe and Delhi has sublet its defence and security to the West to build its economy, infrastructure and military. This policy should be for everyone. America’s NSP can be changed positively.
Washington should respect Asia-Pacific just like its western hemisphere policy of non-interference and exclusive zone (Cuban Missile Crisis).
Or open its backwaters to the rest of the world including China and Russia just as it expects others to honour international maritime laws and waterways for global trade and supply chains.
Like America, everyone has the right to stand tall including China, Russia and Saudi Arabia. There is no restriction on the size of the global economy.
It can accommodate everyone in terms of energy, jobs and technology. As a leading power, America needs an NSP that promotes peace, prosperity and cooperation.
In democratic era, there is no tolerance for wars, poverty and exploitation. It is time to stop predatory infrastructure development deals like East India Company which steal local resources, jobs, undermine democracies and promote wars.
It should be replaced with real progress in Africa, Asia and the West. Countries should be free to do trade in the region and globally.
By ending policies of divide and rule, democracies can have a united, peaceful, and prosperous world.
—The writer is senior political analyst based in Islamabad.
