Above-normal rains and higher temperatures are likely in Pakistan during April 2026.
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in the neutral phase during April 2026.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and is expected to remain neutral during the forecast month.
Monthly Rain Outlook:
A general tendency for above-normal rainfall is anticipated across most parts of the country, with the most pronounced positive anomalies concentrated over western to central regions, particularly Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining areas of central Punjab and northern Balochistan.
Slightly above-normal rainfall is expected over the remaining parts of the country, including southern Punjab, southern Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and Sindh.
Monthly Temperature Outlook:
Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide, with maximum departure over Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions is particularly high over northern regions, including Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as well as some parts of southern Pakistan, particularly southern Sindh and southern Balochistan.
Impacts:
Above-normal rainfall is likely to improve water availability, reducing reliance on stored water for agriculture. The increased rainfall may fulfil the irrigation needs for seasonal vegetables and newly sown Kharif crops, particularly in Sindh and Punjab.
Above-normal temperatures are expected to favour the early ripening of Rabi crops. Spatial temperature gradient may cause strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms, which may affect the seasonal crops, vegetables and orchards.
Rising temperatures and intermittent rainfall episodes may prolong the pollen season in major cities (e.g., Islamabad, Lahore), and the decline is expected by the end of the month. Above-normal temperatures could increase the potential for heat spikes and heatwave conditions, especially over the plain areas of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan.
Above normal temperatures over Gilgit-Baltistan will cause snow melt that may contribute to glacier-related hazards such as GLOF. The rising temperatures, particularly over southern regions, may increase vector-borne disease risk as mosquito activity begins to rise.
Above-normal rainfall could elevate the likelihood of flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountainous and flood-prone areas. Heavy rainfall, along with the hail and windstorms, may damage public property such as electric poles, billboards and solar panels.
Above-normal rainfall is expected to enhance perennial runoff in the upper Indus basin. Farmers are advised to visit the PMD website before irrigation or harvesting. Travellers and tourists are advised to remain cautious while travelling during rainfall events.
