AS general elections of April 2024 loom large in India, the world has also focussed its attention on the elections in the largest democracy in the world. These may be the most consequential election in India’s history which may be the last chance to stop Modi transforming India into a fascist Hindu-supremacist state.
Just weeks before the elections, Modi’s BJP has come under some pressure as several scandals have emerged about massive corruption involving some of the senior most members of the ruling BJP. A BJP leader alleged that Indian Rs 40,000 crore was embezzled by former Chief Minister Yediyurappa during the Covid-19 pandemic. Congress Party was quick to dub it as, “profiting over the dead” and “tip of the iceberg of the scale of scams undertaken by BJP during the last ten years.” This is only one example but the opposition is sitting many others in the hope that it would shake this honest and clean image of BJP.
Riding on the high wave of popularity and economic success, it remains to be seen if any corruption allegations will affect BJP’s expected electoral victory. With the Congress Party’s electoral successes in some state elections in which the BJP suffered defeats, a glimmer of hope and a faint possibility has emerged that the Indian National Congress might recover some of its lost ground and may have an outside chance of forming a government with its allies and coalition partners.
At the moment political narrative in India is controlled by BJP. However, Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and the formation of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) is making waves and forcing the BJP to take this emerging trend into serious consideration. The 28 opposition parties formed an alliance and are challenging Modi’s party on its economic record, rising unemployment and a host of other domestic problems, including rising anti-Muslim sentiment. The alliance has decided to work out seat-sharing arrangements as they aim to stop the ruling BJP party’s third straight win. This prospect gets a further boost with some key regional opposition parties forming alliances with the Congress Party to create a united opposition to challenge Modi. But an outright victory for the congress Party still remains a far cry.
Looking at Modi, from Pakistan’s perspective, we see a leader that reeks of Hindu fundamentalism, populism, determined to destroy the secular constitution of India and set up a Hindu State that has no place for minorities, particularly the Muslims. Picture comes to mind thinking about Modi who through the use of populism has provoked religious sensitivities, has incited the latent fears and exploited the underlying fissures in society and has managed to gather steam and is riding on a wave of popularity based on negativity.
Modi has encouraged the surge in communal violence against all minorities in recent years but the largest minority, the Muslims have faced the worst kind of atrocities committed against them. A number of new laws have been enacted that adversely affected their daily lives and interfere with the religious garments they wear, the food they eat, where and how they worship, and even whom they marry. Modi, the Butcher of Gujrat is a criminal who has been iconized not only by his cult following but is also aided by the full potential of the political, economic, administrative and judicial apparatus to put him on a pedestal as saviour of the Indian Nation.
Modi has created a personality cult around him. Despite bad governance and several political setbacks, Modi’s charisma and popularity helped BJP return to power in 2019 elections. BJP sought votes only in Modi’s name and won. This has created a fascist monster who is using influence of his personality cult to destroy secular fabric of India and create a Hindu state. Inspired by Modi’s policy of hate, otherization, exclusion and fanaticism, his blind followers are playing havoc with the hapless minorities of India particularly the Muslims.
If you look at Modi from an Indian’s perspective, however, then a totally different picture emerges. Instead of an anti-incumbency sentiment, Modi’s popularity has only grown with the passage of time and the Modi card is still the BJP’s trump card as India prepares for the 2024 elections. According to some opinion polls appearing in Indian media nearly 78% of the eligible voters are satisfied with the Modi government’s performance and would prefer to see Modi winning a third term at the polls in 2024.
The Indians, particularly the Hindu majority views Modi as a leader who has delivered on some of the important promises he had made during the 2014 elections most prominent of which was cancellation of the Special status of IIOJ&K which he did in August 2019. Other promises included growing economy, creation of millions of jobs, access to clean drinking water for all, hygienic India for all and microcredit linked to mobile phones for the most underprivileged segments of Society. Modi has successfully delivered on most of these and we now see even the Indian economy picking up after the COVID pandemic. His ideology of strident Hindu nationalism, combined with promises of economic development, remains a big draw with voters.
The resurgence of the Congress Party with a compelling narrative that appeals to the youth, the persecuted minorities and a large number of silent and sane Hindu voters tired of the BJP’s domineering and increasingly divisive governance style and who aspire to see a secular, peaceful and prosperous India is not an impossibility. Since its inception Congress has been resilient, displaying the capability to remodel, change and adapt to shifting political circumstances.
India watchers and experts feel that Congress is the only political party that can compare to BJP’s national and organizational status. If Congress is able to overcome its own internal organization issues, leadership problems and rise like a phoenix from its ashes, it still has the capability and popular appeal to, if not to win the elections in 2024 at least to provide a credible and formidable opposition able to oppose Modi’s growing fascism.
A resolution adopted by the joint opposition that promises to uphold the idea of India as enshrined in the Constitution and ensures the rights of socially, educationally, economically backward communities, and ensure a fair census of the casts including the lower casts, is an element of concern for the BJP as it can develop into a strong narrative to counter the MODI’s fascist model. Normally BJP has gained from a three-way contest, however, the emergence of joint opposition, is likely to turn the 2024 election into a two-way contest which could negatively affect the BJP despite its current popularity.
Based on negativity Modi has managed to capture political and administrative power and put in place his goons at the helm of affairs including in ministerial and strong administrative positions with judiciary lamely following suit and obliging. In India Modi has created a personality cult around him. Despite bad governance and several political setbacks, Modi’s charisma and popularity helped BJP return to power in 2019 elections. BJP sought votes only in Modi’s name and won.
Inspired by Modi’s policy of hate, otherization, exclusion and fanaticism, his blind followers are playing havoc with the hapless minorities of India particularly the Muslims. Despite all these monstrosities, Modi’s ideology of strident Hindu nationalism, combined with promises of economic development, remains a big draw with voters in India.
With the next general election around the corner, Modi is already in pole position and is projecting himself as “lone worrier” against a large number of opposition parties who all want to remove him from power. This was clearly evident from his recent statement in the upper house of parliament when he roared that the nation was witnessing how an individual was strongly facing many, thus setting the tone for the 2024 elections. Modi is appealing to the voters on the slogan that he was living for the country and it suits BJP to have this narrative of one leader taking on the fight with a long list of opposition leaders. Modi versus the rest. BJP is repeating the same tactics in the forthcoming elections, basically selling Brand Modi.
At the moment political narrative in India is controlled by BJP. However, Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat JodoYatra and the formation of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) is making waves and forcing the BJP to take this emerging trend into serious consideration. The 28 opposition parties formed an alliance and are challenging Modi’s party on its economic record, rising unemployment and a host of other domestic problems, including rising anti-Muslim sentiment. The alliance has decided to work out seat-sharing arrangements as they aim to stop the ruling BJP party’s third straight win.
If Congress and its allies fail, 2024 elections in India will present a political scenario which will not look immensely different from what it is today. In fact a third consecutive victory will further embolden Modi who is not only inspired by rising Christian fascism in USA and Europe; and Zionist fascism in Israel, but is also encouraged by these likeminded allies to further turn India into a hellhole for minorities. As one of the India watchers aptly put it, this is a “do or die” situation for the Congress Party.
—The writer is former Ambassador, based in Islamabad.
Email: [email protected]
