A year after the Pahalgam incident of April 2025 in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), the Indian government has yet to provide a clear and convincing explanation of the attack to its own citizens or the international community. The episode not only intensified tensions in South Asia but also raised serious questions about the nature, intent and execution of such incidents in a highly militarized and sensitive region. The Pahalgam attack should not be viewed as an isolated act, rather, it was a carefully conceived and strategically executed operation by Modi Government with broader geopolitical objectives. Among the most significant developments following the incident was the decision taken by India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) on April 23, 2025, to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty-1960, an agreement that had remarkably withstood multiple wars and crises between India and Pakistan. This step is widely interpreted as a major escalation, potentially paving the way for a long-term reconfiguration of water-sharing arrangement and undermining the Kashmir dispute.
Immediately, after this false flag attack, India accused Pakistan of orchestrating the attack, a claim Pakistan categorically rejected while calling for an impartial and independent investigation. The situation quickly escalated, prompting international concern. Diplomatic efforts were undertaken to de-escalate tensions, including engagement by the United States which held discussions with leadership in both countries and emphasized the need for restraint and dialogue. Despite such efforts, the regional environment remained volatile, with heightened rhetoric and military preparedness on both sides. Simultaneously, reports emerged of intensified security operations across IIOJK, including mass arrests, detentions and crackdowns targeting Kashmiris. These actions further aggravated an already fragile situation, reinforcing long-standing grievances among Kashmiris of IIOJK and drawing criticism from various human rights observers. The developments suggested that the aftermath of the Pahalgam incident was being utilized to justify expanded security measures and consolidate control of IIOJK. Analysts argue that the Pahalgam incident fits into a broader historical pattern of false flag operations carried out since the early 21st century. According to this perspective, such operations serve multiple purposes: attributing acts of terrorism to Pakistan, diverting domestic attention from internal political and socio-economic challenges and strengthening ideological narratives of Hindutva. Major false flag operations include; Chittisinghpura massacre in 2000, the Indian Parliament attack in 2001, the Mumbai attacks in 2008, the Pathankot airbase attack in 2016, the Uri attack in 2016 and the Pulwama attack in 2019. Each of these events significantly impacted regional security dynamics and was followed by heightened tensions between India and Pakistan.
Among these incidents, the Pulwama attack of February 14, 2019, stands out due to its far-reaching political and military consequences. In 2023, Satya Pal Malik publicly raised concerns regarding the handling of the incident, pointing to security lapses and unanswered questions. His statements added a new dimension to the debate and intensified scrutiny of official accounts. The immediate aftermath of Pulwama saw a rapid escalation between India and Pakistan. India air violation of Pakistan air space was professionally responded by Islamabad resulting in the downing of Indian aircrafts and the capture of a pilot, who was later released as a good will gesture. These developments brought the two nuclear-armed neighbors dangerously close to a broader conflict, highlighting the risks inherent in such crises. Strategically, the Pulwama episode influenced military planning and procurement decisions. India subsequently inducted advanced fighter aircraft such as the Dassault Rafale, some of which were shootdown by PAF on May 7, 2025, brining humiliation for New Dahli. The crisis exposed Indian vulnerabilities and underscored the importance of deterrence and rapid response mechanism.
Indeed, these false flag operations were designed to achieve a range of long-term strategic objectives. These include portraying Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism in order to isolate it diplomatically, justifying military actions and internal security policies and undermining international support for the Kashmir dispute. Additionally, such incidents are seen as a means of consolidating domestic political support by fostering a sense of external threat. The Pahalgam incident appears, in this view, to align with these broader objectives. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, in particular, is regarded as a strategic move aimed at exerting pressure on Pakistan by leveraging control over shared water resources. Given the treaty’s historical resilience, any attempt to alter or abrogate it carries significant implications for regional stability and could set a dangerous precedent. Moreover, the ongoing situation in IIOJK remains a central factor in South Asian geopolitics. The region has witnessed persistent unrest, especially since August 2019, when constitutional changes altered its administrative status. These developments have further complicated the already intricate political landscape and contributed to recurring cycles of tension.
The history of major security incidents in South Asia remains deeply contested, with sharply divergent narratives presented by different stakeholders. The Pahalgam incident of 2025 has added another layer to this complex discourse, raising critical questions about accountability, transparency and intent. For sustainable peace and stability in the region, it is essential that all such incidents are subjected to credible, impartial investigations. Diplomatic engagement, confidence-building measures and adherence to international norms must take precedence over escalation and confrontation. Ultimately, addressing the core political issue, the longstanding dispute over Jammu and Kashmir remains crucial for breaking the cycle of conflict. Without meaningful dialogue and a commitment to peaceful resolution, the region risks continued instability, with far-reaching consequences not only for South Asia but for global security as well.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
