FRAGILITY of the ceasefire is at the heart of the prevailing standoff between the United States and Iran and the situation is unlikely to improve any time soon without firm commitment by both sides to respect the understanding for a temporary halt in military activities. There appears to be no change in the ground situation despite the reconciliatory tone adopted by the two sides and no one is sure about the fate of the proposed second round of talks in Islamabad.
Pakistan is making frantic behind-the-scenes efforts to salvage the peace process but both the United States and Iran are sticking to their guns and not ready to demonstrate genuine and meaningful flexibility to create a conducive atmosphere for talks. President Donald Trump, no doubt, extended the ceasefire indefinitely, a move that has prevented resumption of hostilities. He also apparently toned down his usual rhetoric on Wednesday when he indicated the second round of talks can take place in Islamabad on Friday, adding good news was expected during talks. Reports emanating from Washington also indicate that Trump has not set a timeline for the extension of a ceasefire with Iran or presentation of a unified proposal by Tehran. The open-ended ceasefire augurs well for peace prospects but uncertainty continues to cloud the second round of peace talks, as Washington and Tehran remain at odds on several issues, most notably the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump extended the ceasefire at the instance of Pakistan but at the same time he announced continuation of naval blockade of Iranian ports as part of the strategy to choke the country’s economy, halt export of oil and prevent the possibility of arms shipments to Iran.
Terming it a grave violation of the ceasefire understanding, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. The dual blockade of Hormuz means closure of the channel for all types of navigation for all countries including Iran and its impact has started appearing as claimed by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt who said Iran’s Kharg Island is “completely full,” but cannot export it due to the US blockade, resulting in “unpaid salaries” for its people. She said that while kinetic military action had been paused under the ceasefire, economic pressure operations were continuing. It was in this backdrop that Iran’s Parliament Speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Wednesday that a “complete ceasefire” with the United States was only possible if the country stopped its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In a post on ‘X’, he said “They did not achieve their goals through military aggression, nor will they through bullying. The only way forward is to recognize the rights of the Iranian nation.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also said that the ‘breach of commitments, blockade and threats’ were the main obstacles to genuine negotiations. Pakistan, which facilitated the first round, has accelerated its diplomatic efforts in search for a breakthrough to persuade the US President to lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports, which is the prime condition of Tehran for resumption of talks. Pakistan was also in “constant” contact with regional nations seeking their “influence” to persuade Iran to come back to the table. In a related development, the Iranian Ambassador in Pakistan called on Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif with the latter expressing cautious optimism that all sides would continue to uphold the ceasefire and translate this fragile pause into a momentum for a durable, comprehensive peace agreement. Pakistan’s optimism notwithstanding, the fact remains the situation is very fluid and anything could happen any time as both sides are trying to assert their control of Strait of Hormuz. Provocative moves and counter moves could lead both the United States and Iran nowhere except reputational, strategic, economic and military losses for them and economic losses for the world at large.
