Akbar Jan Marwat
THE Taliban have rejected the latest proposal of the
Afghan Government to call a ceasefire during the holy
month of Ramazan. The cease-fire according to the Afghan Government would help the government to effectively deal with the outbreak of the COVID-19 Pandemic. In response the Taliban spokesman Suhail Suhail said: “A Ceasefire would have been possible if potential peace process signed at the end of February was being implemented fully, but hurdles in the process meant, that Taliban would not lay down arms, as asking for such a ceasefire was not rational and convincing”. The COVID-19 outbreak in Afghanistan is on the increase, even in the absence of sufficient testing. But the Afghan Government has not been able to give much attention to the increasing pandemic, as its energies are directed at the more pressing issue of following the conditionality of the peace deal signed with the Taliban by the American on the 29 February 2020. The peace agreement was being violated from the beginning. The Afghan Government refused to release the 5000 Taliban prisoners, as agreed to, in the peace process. After many hiccups the Afghan Government released only a few hundred Taliban prisoners. The Taliban in return freed a couple of Afghan Government functionaries. The Afghan Government, it seems, wants to use the prisoners staggered release as a leverage over the Taliban. The Taliban on the other hand see the issue of its prisoners release as an opportunity for the Americans to keep its promise. The release of its prisoners is also a pre-requisite for the Taliban to indulge in a broader dialogue with the Afghan Government.
The US on the one hand wants the Afghan Government to fulfil the conditions of the peace process in this regard. The US has even informed the Afghan Government of its intention of withholding aid worth one billion dollars to war ravaged Afghanistan for dragging its feet on the peace process. On the other hand the US wants to pressurise Pakistan to convince the Taliban to assist and facilitate the Americans in its withdrawal process. American envoy Zalmy Khalilzad and US and NATO forces Commander Austin Miller recently met Gen Bajwa, the Pakistan Chief of Army Staff in this regard. The withdrawal option becomes even more important for the Americans as COVID-19 spreads in Afghanistan. Former US Ambassador Richard Olson warned that if Corona hits Afghanistan hard the withdrawal of US troops and CIA personnel could be withdrawn earlier than promised. This will further increase American dependence on the Taliban to reduce violence in Afghanistan and not let foreign militant forces like Islamic State to use its soil for its violent acts. So far the Taliban have used considerable restraint in attacking American forces, however, Taliban have not decreased its tempo in attacking the Afghan forces to maintain its political and military advantage.
The Afghan officials have once again ratcheted up its criticism against Pakistan, especially after the attack of Islamic State on a Sikh Gurdwara in Kabul. The surrender or arrest of an Islamic State Commander Aslam Farooqui prompted Afghan intelligence to claim that Pakistan was supporting the Islamic State, on the other hand Pakistani authorities have solid proofs that India is supporting the violence perpetuated by Islamic State and other militant organizations, because India stands to lose the most from the peace process between the Taliban and the Afghan Government and thus wants to sabotage it. It must also be mentioned that the Taliban have also been very active in their operations against the Islamic State. The capture of Kuner province, which was a stronghold of Islamic State, shows the sincerity of the Taliban towards the success of the peace process. The Afghan government’s proclivity of blaming Pakistan for all its misfortunes is unfortunate and bodes ill for the arrival of durable peace process in the region. In fast changing political developments in Afghanistan the self appointed Second President of Afghanistan Abdulah Abdullah is increasing his political space by adopting a reconciliatory approach. After Dr Ghani refused to offer him the office of Chief Executive for the second term, Mr Abdullah floated another proposal. According to this proposal Dr Abdullah would get 50% share in federal cabinet; right to appoint Governors in the provinces he won; and most importantly a substantial role in the peace process. An important role in the peace process will bring him closer to the US, Pakistan, NATO and all other regional actors involved in the process. All this will, of course, depend on the response of President Ghani who does not appear to be in a reconciliatory mood at the moment. The United Nations has warned that the spread of the Corona pandemic could cause global humanitarian crises and has thus appealed for a global cease-fire in all theatres of conflict. The protagonists involved in the Afghan conflict, however, seem to have other priorities.
—The writer is a former Health Minister, based in Islamabad.
