THE evolving trajectory of Indo-Afghan relationship, particularly since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, presents a complex geopolitical challenge for Pakistan, impacting its security and regional standing.
This dynamic–often referred to as the Indo-Afghan terrorist nexus to destabilize the region–forces Islamabad to confront this evil alliance characterized by heightened security threats sprawling from the western border. Sadly, despite Pakistan’s exemplary manifestation of self-restraint, the Taliban Regime in Kabul recently violated Pakistan’s sovereignty. Consequently, in its befitting response to Afghan’s unprovoked attack, Pakistan’s security forces demonstrated a status quo ante posture to deter external terrorism threats. The resolve shown by Pakistan’s security forces is prompt and poised to protect its sovereignty while halting cross-border terrorism.
The geopolitical dynamics of the Indo-Afghan nexus against Pakistan’s “new normal” involves complex strategic asymmetry. India has been increasing its influence in Afghanistan through development aid and infrastructure projects, positioning itself as a key regional player. Pakistan, on the other hand, views the growing Indian presence in Afghanistan with warranted suspicion, perceiving it as a threat to its security and regional stability. The Indo-Afghan terrorism trajectory fuels proxy conflicts, diplomatic tensions and impacts regional stability.The Pak “new normal” implies a recalibration of its counter-terrorism synergy and foreign policy, adapting to the changing regional landscape.
Put precisely, examining the Pak- Afghan history, we note that the People of Afghanistan have always played a double game in terms of their relations with Pakistan. Both Indo-Afghan used to strengthen their bilateral relations through the treaty of friendship 1950. On the contrary, Afghanistan was the only country to vote against Pakistan’s admission to the United Nations Organization. Despite Pakistan’s exemplary support for the Afghan war against the Soviet Union during the Cold War and Pakistan’s out of way support for the Afghan refugees in Pakistan, the Pak- Afghan relations failed to form a strong basis. Undeniably, since the emergence of Pakistan, India has been engaged in derailing Pakistan’s stability and security through its evil means and approaches. Indian Consulates in Kandahar and Jalalabad near the Pak-Afghan border have further raised serious concerns for Pakistan about the Indian presence in Afghanistan. Recent Pakistani strikes targeting terrorist networks in Afghanistan have significantly given a clear message to both the Afghan and the Indian Governments as this time Pakistan’s Security Establishment demonstrated its strong determination to act directly against militants operating from Afghan soil. Notably, Pakistan repeatedly asked the Taliban Government in Kabul to take action against the TTP dens in Afghanistan, but Kabul paid no heed and attention to this Pakistani demand. Despite the targeted strikes in the past, the TTP remains a significant threat. Pakistani officials say militants, including Afghan nationals, continue to use Afghan soil as a base for attacks in Pakistan.
Needless to say, Pakistan’s current actions against the Taliban’s terrorist group are fundamentally related to the group’s increased terrorist activities and attacks on Pakistani soil. In recent months, Pakistan experienced heightened tensions with Afghanistan, particularly due to the TTP’s operating from Afghanistan. Moreover, the TTP has been launching attacks on the Pakistan security personnel, including innocent civilians. In response to these militant activities, last week, Pakistan responded with precision airstrikes and military targets in Afghanistan.
Undeniably since the Afghan Taliban group’s return to power in August 2021, Islamabad has continuously engaged them in high-level talks, including meetings with the Afghan‘s FM Amir Muttaqi. Yet despite Pakistan’s propensity and goodwill to seek “pragmatic relationship” with Taliban authorities based on counterterrorism, border security and economic cooperation, the interim Taliban Government in Kabul hardly responded positively.The Afghan dichotomy is the root of the problem. Afghan Taliban hold malicious desire to maintain ties with the TPP militants, instead of isolating them.Conspiringly, while the Afghan Taliban delegation was in New Delhi, India-backed Afghan terrorists violated Pak sovereignty. Strategists argue that amid the growing threats of cross-border terrorism, a preemptive strike in self-defence is the only way to avert a credible, imminent attack, especially if diplomatic channels are perceived as ineffective. The Afghan and Indian sponsored Fitna Alkhwarij, a source of cross-border terrorism, does not only undermine Pakistan’s sovereignty but also the regional stability. Clearly, in pursuit of protecting its sovereignty and security through punitive-cum- precision military strikes, Pakistani security forces can do any action possible within their reach. The Pakistani nation is proud of its defence forces and national martyrs who have sacrificed their lives in defending sovereignty and security of homeland. In response to Afghan provocation (October11- 12), Pakistani security forces occupied and destroyed 21 Afghan checkposts, including multiple training camps and killed 200 Afghan terrorists.
Pakistan’s “new normal” is profoundly defined by an inevitable need to balance diplomatic engagement with a firm security posture. Though Pakistan still offers a diplomatic course, it will never compromise on its territorial integrity and sovereignty. Today, the Pakistan military establishment, under the very command of COAS Field Marshal Gen Asim Munir, is fostering a comprehensive counter-terrorism policy that commits to profoundly addressing the challenge of internal insurgency and externally-led terrorism with an iron-clad resolve and determination.
Ultimately, the onus lies on the Taliban government in Kabul to take concrete actions to ensure that the Afghan territory is not used as a Launchpad for terrorist activities. The future viability of the Pak-Afghan relationship intrinsically depends on mutual respect for sovereignty, particularly the Afghan Taliban’s ensured commitment of refraining from cross-border-terrorism and its prompt isolation from India’s sponsored proxy war through the TTP operatives in the region. Make no mistake if the Afghan Taliban don’t learn lesson from Pakistan’s current actions, it could lead to significant consequences for them. Foreseeably, Pakistan’s diplomatic clout, espoused by its strategic leverage, will thwart Indo- Afghan plans to destabilize this region.
—The writer, based in Pakistan, an independent IR & International Law analyst, also an expert in Conflict and Peace Studies (with special focus on Palestine, Kashmir), is member of European Consortium of Political Research (ECPR), including the Washington Foreign Law Society/American Society of International Law.
