Emerging US-Taliban collaboration and Pakistan
On June 30, 2022 United States and Interim Taliban Government of Afghanistan agreed to collaborate and cooperate with each other during two days meeting at Doha, Qatar.
This meeting is considered to be very significant from two perspectives: One, US delegation under Special Representative for Afghanistan, Thomas West hinted optimism and re-engagement with Taliban.
In fact, prior to this meeting US State Department signalled revival of diplomatic engagement with the Taliban Interim Government, arguing that, Washington cannot achieve its strategic objectives by isolating Kabul.
“We are advancing these interests through engagement. We cannot achieve our objectives with a policy of pure isolation”.
Two, Taliban Foreign Minister showed willingness to reciprocate and extend cooperative hand towards US.
As per Mr Balkhi, “FM Muttaqi expressed gratitude to the U.S. for announcing $55 million in humanitarian aid to earthquake victims, reiterating release of Afghan assets and lifting of sanctions”.
Both sides were found with new spirit of dynamism for reengaging each other. These statements clearly indicate the future course of action in the bilateral relationship of United States and Interim Taliban Government of Afghanistan.
Both sides are willing to move forward for the pursuance of their respective goals. By all means Taliban Government would like US assistance to sustain its poor economy and tracking US to release $7 Billion of Afghanistan, still frozen by US.
If released, this would be a great boost for the economic revival of Afghanistan. This US side has its strategic objectives in and around Afghanistan, which necessitate Washington to stay closely associated with Taliban through its strategy of carrot and stick.
Whereas, US is unwilling to release the frozen $7 Billion, but keeping the hope alive by giving economic assistance like $55 million as a humanitarian assistance for earthquake affected people.
On one hand US is pursuing a policy of re-engagement with Interim Taliban Government, on the other, it has clarified that, “None of these engagements should be seen as ‘legitimizing’ the Taliban or its so-called government but are a mere reflection of the reality that we need to have such discussions in order to advance U.S. interests”.
Indeed, this is an inherited contradiction in the US policy which Washington calls as a flexible approach.
Such double standards were observed in the US-Taliban Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan, signed on February 29, 2020.
US Government signed this agreement with a None-State Actor (Taliban) where Taliban projected itself and got it in-writing in agreement as “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan”.
This agreement is considered as an official document and a commitment between US and Taliban for continuation of their cooperation in future.
The agreement laid the foundation for pull-out of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan and a peaceful transition of power to Taliban from an elected Government which had US backing prior to August 2021.
Currently, United States is emphasizing Interim Taliban Government for protection of human rights, women rights and securing the rights of minorities for which NGOs and many UN agencies are already working in Afghanistan.
This in fact is a covert strategy of United States, the real agenda of the Washington is its strategic interests in the region which can be best achieved while being in the region through a policy of engagement.
Broadly there are five main objectives of US in this region: One, to have a check on the rising power of China, which US consider as its peer competitor in the international politics.
While being in Afghanistan, US can conveniently engage China on multiple grounds; strategic, economic and political.
Two; countering resurgent Russia, where President Putin has been challenging the US supremacy and finally invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Three: to have a close monitoring of Iran, its nuclear programme, its expanding power in the Middle East and especially its enmity with the state of Israel.
Fourth: to keep pressure on nuclear Pakistan and to downgrade Pak-China relationship.
Fifth: to have an influence in the Central Asian region, this entails two aspects; denying Russian and Chinese influence there.
Indeed, as a super power US would always like to counter any effort by rising and resurgent powers.
Whereas, Russia has been lured-in to invade the Ukraine where this resurgent power seems hapless after five months of military campaigning, China is behaving cautiously in the regional and global politics.
Russia miscalculated the military power of Ukraine and slow and gradual military reinforcement by NATO states.
Although, Ukraine has been destroyed by Russia but Moscow seems to be failing in its military aggression.
Through superior war strategy, U.S and NATO are neutralizing the Russia which could be an end to the Russian efforts of becoming a super power again.
Due to its ill-timed military invasion in Ukraine, Russia may not be forthcoming to have a dedicated engagement with Afghanistan, leaving the space for US.
Similarly, China is very guarded in making any serious engagement with Taliban led Afghan Government.
Iran too is very careful for its relationship with Interim Taliban Government. There is hard choice for Pakistan for remaining engaged with Interim Taliban Government which is neither very forthcoming towards Islamabad nor able to economically stabilize Afghanistan.
There have been more problems than solutions for Pakistan after Taliban took over power in Afghanistan.
TTP has been frequently operating against Pakistani security forces all along the Pak-Afghan border since August 2021.
Besides, there is political instability in Pakistan which is negatively impacting the economy of Pakistan.
A politically unstable and economically weaker Pakistan suits US for the attainment of its abovementioned strategic objectives.
Indeed, Pakistan is envisioned as a linchpin in the US regional strategy for South and Central Asia.
It is therefore vital for Pakistani leadership to sit together and debate the challenges through a strategic vision where sovereignty and integrity of the state is ensured while safeguarding its economic and strategic interests regionally and globally.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
