India’s abstention at UN on Ukraine can cost India
AS the world is witnessing an escalation in tension on the Russia-Ukraine border where Moscow has deployed more than a hundred thousand of its troops, it is also flexing its muscles by stationing more forces in Belarus, in the shadow of military exercises.
The US and other European states have expressed concerns, while the US has issued multiple warnings that Russia is attempting to ‘fabricate a pretext for an attack’ on Ukraine.
On 31 January, UNSC met to discuss Russian troops’ buildup on Ukraine border and tried to defuse the crisis.
While US termed it the largest mobilization in decades, Russia accused Washington and EU of “whipping up tension”.
In UNSC before the session, it was required by procedural vote that nine of the members should support the move.
Ten of the members including US, UK and France voted in favor, whereas, China and Russia voted against it.
India, being a strategic US partner and Russia being its largest arms supplier abstained along with Gabon and Kenya.
The Indian move is not surprising, as in July 2021, S.Jaishankar, India’s Foreign Minister, said, “The country will stay true to its founding tradition of non-alignment and not take sides with any big power”.
In case of Russian military action in Ukraine, Moscow will become more dependent on China for political support, and in that case India’s neutrality will go vain, as it will give China more sway over Russia.
As a result of this, New Delhi won’t be able to withstand the harsh international backlash and the consequences of a war like scenario.
As per US intelligence assessment there are 70% chances of Russian invasion and the prediction that Moscow can seize Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, in days; can force around half a million people to flee.
This Russian belligerence would force Washington to shift its resources and attention from Indo-Pacific to Europe, and if India again remains neutral, Moscow will frame it as its victory against US.
Though US has not asked India to choose between Moscow and Washington, but recently US lawmakers also pressed a waiver for India over its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense system under “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” (CAATSA).
If Russia-US ties continue to deteriorate and India stays neutral, the possibility of wavier under CAATSA will certainly change.
With new alliances and new global order and Beijing’s rise as a common strategic adversary, the cost of Indo-US inability to work together in new global governance arena can be much higher for both countries.
As India believes that its policy at UN is of non-alignment but it has transformed into a policy of non-alienation, which requires it to not alienate any major bloc, group, or constituency in international forums.
The case of Ukraine is not the new one.In Israel-Palestine conflict, US supports Israel, whereas, India is leaned towards Palestine because of its energy dependency on the Arab world.
In 2011, India abstained from UNSC resolution for action against Syria for its crackdown on pro-democracy activists.
In 2014, New Delhi again refrained from UNSC resolution for condemning Russia over Crimea’s secession from Ukraine.
Many experts believe that abstention is part of India’s delicate balancing act between Russia and the West.
For now, America’s ardent wooing of New Delhi has led many in India in believing that Washington needs India more than India needs US; but this is a dangerous delusion because in politics there are no permanent foes and friends and the ambivalence about Russian aggression would further undermine the idea that a powerful India benefits the West.
—The writer is a freelancer and media activist.
