Xi-Zelensky call heralds optimism for peace in Ukraine
I had a long and meaningful phone call with [Chinese] President Xi Jinping. I believe that this call, as well as the appointment of Ukraine’s ambassador to China, will give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations,”tweeted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after his hour-long phone call with President Xi Jinping. For very plausible reasons, this long-awaited phone call has attracted more attention in the global media than the “planned surprise” visit to Kyiv by US President Joe Biden on the anniversary of the Ukraine conflict. One basic difference between Biden’s visit to Ukraine and Xi’s phone call is the “intent”: while Biden went to Kyiv with a clear objective to fuel the conflict by pledging more material assistance to the Ukrainian forces, while Xi’s call was meant for finding ways to start a reconciliation process between the two sides. This is a fact that from day one, Beijing has been trying – directly and indirectly – to persuade Putin and Zelensky to resort to a negotiating table to resolve this issue.
Over the past 15 months, the United States has consistently rebuffed all attempts to broker a negotiation between Ukraine and Russia, ostensibly in pursuit of its own narrow self-interest. However, in the aftermath of the Pentagon leaks, a sudden shift in the dynamics of this conflict has emerged which has had a palpable and demoralizing effect on Zelensky and his associates. A striking dichotomy is visible in the realm of Western perceptions regarding China. While on one hand, fabricated claims have been made regarding China’s alleged weapon supply to Russia, on the other hand, there is recognition that China is the only country which wields significant influence in both Kyiv and Moscow, and is therefore well positioned as the pre-eminent global power capable of facilitating a negotiated resolution to the Ukraine conflict.
In the Wednesday’s phone call, President Xi very aptly clarified China’s position and snubbed his Western critics by saying that China, “as a responsible majority country”, would “neither watch the fire from the other side, nor add fuel to the fire, let alone take advantage of the crisis to profit”. This statement seems to take a veiled dig at the United States, which has thus far been the most generous provider of aid to Ukraine to further aggravate the crisis, which has directly helped in NATO’s expansion in Northern Europe – Finland and Sweden – as well as resuscitate this moribund alliance from the brink of its organic demise. On the pretext of the Ukraine conflict, Washington has been able to reactivate this dwindling organization to bolster its hegemonic designs in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
The leaks have exposed the true thinking of the United States and its allies that believe that Ukraine, despite all the financial and military support from the West, is in no position to outcompete the Russian forces. This pessimism is now quite visible in the Western media as well as Zelensky’s close circle. This is a fact that Zelensky has long harboured a deep-seated faith in China’s ability to serve as a trustworthy mediator in facilitating a judicious and equitable reconciliation process., but he was hesitant to approach Beijing in the early stages of the conflict under the extreme influence of the Western capitals that wanted to keep China out of a “Europe’s internal matter”. Exemplary mediation in the Iran-Saudi détente has definitely helped in enhancing China’s brand as a reliable and impartial global mediator. Another factor often neglected by the analysts is that Ukraine and China had very cordial and close relations before the eruption of this conflict.
Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, the bonds between China and Ukraine had been progressively strengthening. By 2019, China had emerged as Ukraine’s pre-eminent trading partner, having assumed the mantle of the largest importer of the country’s iron ore and barley. In turn, Ukraine had become China’s leading corn supplier and second-largest source of arms. Notably, the Liaoning – China’s first aircraft carrier – had been an old Soviet vessel procured from Ukraine and subsequently refurbished by the Chinese Navy. The last recorded communication between Presidents Xi and Zelensky was in January 2022, just weeks prior to the onset of the conflict, when they marked the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. Xi’s sincere intentions are clear from the decision to send the special envoy on Eurasian affairs on a diplomatic mission to Ukraine and other nations to engage in in-depth communication with all relevant parties with the aim of facilitating a political settlement to the ongoing crisis. This latest development underscores China’s commitment to constructive engagement in the Ukraine conflict and its dedication to promoting stability and peace in the region.
The reality is that most of the European countries — including France, Germany, Italy and Spain – have been supportive of Beijing’s role in the peace process. A kind of fatigue has enveloped the European thinking over the Ukraine conflict, but Washington is deliberately trying to keep the flame of conflict high in his attempt to expand the role of NATO in Europe – and the Indo-Pacific. But Washington is fast losing support for its belligerent stance on this matter. President Xi’s call is a well-timed stroke to extinguish the flames of conflict in Ukraine. It is expected that soon we will witness the next round of the peace process there. China’s peace initiative, which started with the release of a 12-point position paper on the settlement on the Ukraine conflict in the last week of February, is now gaining momentum. However, persuading Russia and Ukraine to sit down and negotiate is no easy task. Thankfully, there are now more voices for peace and rationality with an increasing number of countries in Europe waking up to the reality that a protracted crisis is harmful to everyone. Dialogue is the only viable way out, and this message is starting to resonate across the globe.
—The writer is political analyst, based in Karachi.
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