THE dynamics of modern war have changed drastically in the last decade.
War zones have moved from borders to inside countries with the induction of missiles in modern multi-domain technology. Since the millennium, water has been the prime source of conflict.India has opened the dams’ gates, flooding Pakistan. Pakistan, on the contrary, is still fighting amongst itself on what to do. History is full of examples where nations that act on emotions and not wisdom are doomed. Kashmir’s 2019 revocation of Articles 370 and 35A was the culmination point of the RSS agenda (roots to Hindu Nationalism – Walter Anderson and Shrinath Domale). BJP took over the government in 2014. It was the main point of their agenda. Kashmir was divided into three parts, converting into a Union Territory of India, triggering geopolitical shocks in the subcontinent and harbingers of future conflicts.
The Modi government is intoxicated with the slogan of “Shining India,” believing that they are a leading power in the world — not a regional power but a superpower. Water, a necessity for survival, has also been used as a weapon since time immemorial. Wars and conflicts have occurred over water issues. In the present geopolitical milieu, there are two options for India: peace and cooperation, or continued conflict in the subcontinent, or to usher in a new era of shared development.
The RSS agenda is to convert India into a Hindutva state, which amounts to continuous conflict. The BJP has no room for cooperation or friendship with Pakistan. Bharat has been in a retrogressive gear ever since the BJP government came into power. Post-Pulwama false flag terrorist attack, India escalated tensions to a degree ending up in Operation Sandoor. Over the last two decades, Indian industrial and economic growth has emboldened India to believe it can do anything while the international community will ignore it.
Diplomacy has been replaced with arrogance. It was here that the BJP high command failed to appreciate the power and resolve of Pakistan — a classic political and tactical blunder against a strong Muslim country, a people who ruled India for 1,200 years, a DNA of martial races. India’s defeat in the May 2025 short war completely altered the geopolitical scenario, not only regionally but globally. India fell from the higher pedestal it had elevated itself to. Post-Operation Sandoor completely changed the balance of power in South Asia.
Especially, the Pakistan–Saudi Defence Pact is a force multiplier in regional strategic dynamics. Criticism apart, the BJP government, humiliated, reiterated that they would continue operations into phase two. The contours of follow-up operations have multi-dimensions besides conventional war. India resorted to using water as a weapon. The BJP government’s pre-calculated action to suspend the Indus Basin Treaty was a declared violation of international law and India still sticks to its stance.
Pakistan declared that any stoppage of water would be considered an act of war. Still, India resorted to opening the gates of the dams built on dry rivers, flooding major parts of Punjab, Pakistan. As the upper riparian, India, by suspension, violated international law and governing conventions on water. PM Modi is a wild elephant in the courtyard — an RSS nominee who built a superiority cult believing India can do anything and get away with it.
This superiority perception is manifest in the suspension of the Indus Basin Treaty. Firstly, the rivers Ravi, Sutlej and Beas were turned into dry patches by building a series of dams inside India, in violation of the Treaty, to control waters by invoking loopholes. India has resorted to terrorism not only through its proxies in Balochistan and the KP but also by using water weaponization. The situation worsens due to climate change and continuous rains in both Kashmir and Indian Punjab.
Due to heavy rain and flooding, for India, water became an uncontrollable commodity. What has Pakistan been doing to fulfill the Indus Basin Treaty measures? The answer is nil. In floods, Pakistan’s options to control this situation are virtually non-existent. It is an existential threat for Pakistan. Political polarization did not allow any major project to be undertaken for almost three decades.
The reasons are partly political, partly the politicians’ selfish interests and partly Indian subversion. India is pumping funds to create negative perceptions about dams to stop construction of any dam or reservoir, including Kalabagh. In this article, I will not touch the technical details but only the salient points. It is one of the most recommended dams. Kalabagh Dam’s first preliminary phase was completed early in 1950.
It is unfortunate that in 1981, the construction was deferred by the then Governor, Fazal Haq, following protests in Nowshera and later under political pressure. It is now an open secret that Indians sabotaged Kalabagh Dam. The beauty of fifth-generation war is that the victim does not comprehend what is happening. Politicians get played into unknown hands, thus not supporting Kalabagh Dam despite favourable technical reports.
Protecting water resources is vital for Pakistan’s existence. Pakistan has no option but to develop water resources and protect its interests in three ways. First, create catchment areas. The Ravi, Sutlej and Beas rivers are virtually dry due to India having constructed scores of dams in violation of the Indus Basin Treaty. During monsoon, India discharges water causing floods.
As part of the water war, India now releases millions of gallons of even stored water to flood areas in Pakistan, leaving the country with no remedy. The water released by India not only causes flood damage but millions of gallons get wasted into the Arabian Sea, estimated at worth 11 billion USD. It is proposed that the banks of these three rivers be raised by 200 to 300 feet to create catchment areas to trap released flood water with check barrages.
It can be done as a public-private enterprise within a couple of years. The dividends are worth billions of dollars. Pakistan can use this water during dry seasons and it will also allow subsoil water to rise, making it easier to use. Further, during Indian aggressions, these corridors of water will restrict the movement of armour and act as major obstacles. Second, construction of dams. A series of dams are required — it is time for the construction of Kalabagh. The dam was initially approved in 1950 and was later a basic unit under the Indus Basin Treaty. As the Afghan war was at its peak, the President did not want a new issue in the KP. He asked that the matter be pended for the next meeting, but it never came up.
Kalabagh Dam has three dimensions: first, technical feasibility; second, economic viability; and third, political connotations. Technically, research was carried out even before the Indus Basin Treaty, overseen by the World Bank and independent feasibility experts like Bashir A. Malik, Chief Technical Advisor of the United Nations, among others. The most authentic study was carried out by Mr. Shams, belonging to the KP, who termed this project one of the best for Pakistan. Pakistan is going to benefit annually with savings of four billion US dollars — two billion in irrigation benefits and 132 billion US dollars in water savings, with overall benefits exceeding 45 billion dollars every year as per the study carried out then. Under current prices, the benefits will be more than triple. Furthermore, the dam will allow 800,000 acres of agricultural land to be cultivated from stored water that currently goes to waste. It will provide cheap electricity to the tune of 3,600 MW. These are independent studies without political bias. Mainstream politicians oppose the dam without justification. The main excuse — that it will reduce Indus River water for Sindh and will not give sufficient quantity to the delta, allowing the sea to encroach — is rejected by experts. These are baseless arguments, as the flow downstream of Sukkur will increase, not decrease, with stored water. Third, stoppage of floods will allow the use of kutcha (river bed) areas in Sindh and South Punjab for tube-well chains, now economical under solar systems. Connected pipes can supply water to adjoining cities and can also be stored in other lakes for human consumption as well as irrigation. Living examples include Saudi Arabia, Israel, China and Libya, where large swaths of desert land have been irrigated and converted green.
These days, a campaign is launched on social media that dams should be demolished to ensure the natural flow of rivers. Unknown PhDs are brought on television to advance their arguments. If the argument is correct, then the United States, where MIT is situated, should not have built any dams. The Chinese have harnessed water to the best of their ability in the world — the largest project is being constructed on the river along the Himalayan range in the Tibetan Plateau. Indians on the Indus River and its distributaries in Kashmir have already constructed scores of dams ensuring they can flood or stop water flow. Pakistani intellectuals had no courage to stop India. Pakistan’s Punjab, Sindh, and other provinces are like brothers. They can sit down and work out the technical details along with the financial benefits for each.
Though the dam is situated in Punjab, its royalty can be distributed to the KP because some catchment areas will extend there. Baloch opposition is comical; in fact, they will get more water from storage built in Balochistan’s catchment areas. India alone has been pumping millions of dollars (RAW papers) to stop this and other projects by creating conflicts and polarization. When national objectives are at stake and technical and financial aspects are positive, the State should act and not be a slave to politicians seeking consensus. They mislead the public for their own political and financial benefits. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank will be willing to fund this dam because it is financially very profitable. Kalabagh is one of the best green options.
The payback period of this dam is eight years. It will also save 11 million MG of water that would otherwise go to waste in case of overflow. It is estimated that annually $85 million income will be generated from the sale of electricity — making this one of the best options for Pakistan’s economy. In the last 400 years, a number of international conventions have enacted viable laws and agreements to ensure that water is equally distributed among the users of upper and lower riparians. It does not give any right to anyone, whether upper or lower riparian, to bulldoze any project on such flimsy grounds as are being advanced against Kalabagh. Fourth, all major cities lack functional water treatment plants for sewage and industrial waste. Karachi had three plants, none functional for the last 30 years. It is time Pakistan wakes up to ensure that future generations do not suffer water conflicts.
—The author is a Brigadier Retired, a decorated officer with 32 years of active combat experience, 30 years in corporate sector as MD/COO. A column writer, Researcher and TV analyst.
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