THE 2026, Midterm US Congressional Election is scheduled to be held — across the length and breadth of the country — on Tuesday, November 3. These elections are considered significant, from the point of view of the US democracy? — and are also often seen as a barometer of the President’s performance during the past two years of his 4-year presidential term. Naturally, the second — and equally important question — that arises is: Do midterm elections affect the President? If it does, then how?
Should the Congress gain seats in the same party as the President, it reflects well on the President. Contrary to this, If congressional seats are lost from the President’s party, it doesn’t help him/her to enact his/her agenda. When the Congress and the President are of the same party, the President often can pass legislation more freely than when he faces the obstacles of an opposing party.
The upcoming US midterm elections are of profound significance, not only for the American people, but also for the international community. President Trump’s confrontational political posture and economic and trade policies, widely perceived as serving American interests at the expense of others, have generated considerable discontent across the globe and are having far-reaching implications for economies and international relations worldwide. According to October 20, 2026 news report of US political correspondent for Reuters, Nolan D. McCaskill, President Donald Trump’s record-low approval ratings, growing public frustration over the rising cost of living and an increasingly contentious debate over immigration are emerging as key factors shaping the November 3 midterm elections. The outcome will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress or Democrats gain greater legislative leverage to challenge the Trump administration’s policies and agenda. Public opinion surveys and voter-tracking polls suggest that this stance has generated considerable discontent among sections of the American electorate, potentially influencing voting preferences in the forthcoming elections.
Public disapproval of Trump’s Gaza policy: A Quinnipiac University, September 24, 2025 poll, found that 56% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, compared with 31% who approved. Similarly, a Pew Research Centre survey conducted in October 2025 indicated that 42% of Americans disapproved of the administration’s handling of the crisis, while 36% believed Trump favoured Israel excessively. These findings underscore the political risks associated with an approach perceived by many Americans as disproportionately supportive of Israel, particularly amid the devastating humanitarian consequences of its military operations in Gaza.
Arab-American voters: A significant shift in allegiance: A poll reportedly published by The Washington Post on October 22, 2026, points to a substantial erosion of Trump’s support among Arab-American voters. According to the reported findings, 80% disapproved of his handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict. Significantly, 54% of Arab Americans who voted for Trump in 2024 also expressed disapproval of his approach to the war. This apparent shift is politically consequential. Even a relatively modest change in voter allegiance can prove decisive in closely contested congressional districts, particularly where electoral margins are narrow.
Opposition to Trump’s Gaza takeover proposal: Trump’s controversial proposal to take control of Gaza and relocate its Palestinian population to facilitate redevelopment also encountered widespread opposition. According to polling reported by Truthout and Anadolu Agency in February 2025, 85% of Democrats and 63% of Independents opposed the proposal. Even among Republicans, opinion was divided, with 46% supporting it and 43% opposing it. Such figures suggest that the proposal transcended conventional partisan divisions, raising serious concerns among Americans about the future of the Palestinian people.
Generational divisions and changing republican sentiment: The growing divergence between Trump’s policies and sections of his own political base is another factor worth examining. A May 2025 survey by Data for Progress found that 51% of voters, including, as per a separate survey, 56% of Independents, believed Trump should press Israel to agree to a ceasefire. Meanwhile, polling attributed to Big Data Poll suggested that criticism of Israel’s military campaign had also gained ground among younger Republicans. Among respondents aged 18–29 who identified with the America First movement, 52.9% reportedly characterized Israel’s operations in Gaza as genocide. Another reported finding indicated that 40.8% of Trump supporters aged 25–29 sympathized more with the Palestinians than with Israel.
These findings point to potential fractures within the Republican coalition, particularly among younger voters whose foreign-policy preferences may not always align with those of the party’s traditional leadership. Growing opposition to unconditional military assistance: Public sentiment regarding US military assistance to Israel presents another potentially significant electoral consideration. A recent 2026 polling across major outlets (including Ipsos, Chicago Council on Global Affairs and AP-NORC) consistently shows that a large share of Americans favor reducing or ending military assistance to Israel, frequently hovering around 55% in general electorate surveys.
The US-Israel-Iran war: An overriding electoral consideration: Equally difficult to overlook is the continuing US-Israel-Iran war and its far-reaching economic consequences. The conflict has inflicted and continues to inflict, severe economic disruption, with repercussions extending well beyond the countries directly involved. How, then, could this conflict be dismissed as a relatively insignificant consideration in assessing the electoral prospects of Trump’s Republican Party? Nevertheless, public opinion polls should not be mistaken for definitive predictions of electoral outcomes. The November 3 elections will also be shaped by domestic economic conditions, immigration, candidate quality, turnout and the particular dynamics of individual congressional districts.
—The writer is contributing columnist, based in Islamabad.
