LATELY, Russian forces have captured more than 100 square kilometres of territory in the Donbas region, which is now almost 88 per cent under Russian control. Russia has also captured 19 settlements in the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Fighting on the ground has escalated and is taking place at almost the same pace as it did four years ago. Similarly, there has been an escalation in long-range missile strikes. Russian air strikes have doubled, hitting the cities of Mykolaiv and Kharkiv, while there are also claims of attacks on vessels in the Black Sea. Ukraine, too, is striking Russian vessels in the Black Sea and targets in Russian cities. The infrastructure damage on both sides is colossal.
Every day, Ukrainian infrastructure is not only being destroyed, but what remains cannot be repaired because of the intensity of the war. The conflict has now continued for years, with Slavic blood being spilled on both sides. A rough estimate puts the number of deaths on both sides at 1.5 million. The scale of destruction and structural damage in Ukraine and Russia is enormous.
Critics argue that, under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s survival hinges on the continuation of the war. Budgetary revenue this year has fallen well short of expectations, creating a dilemma over whether to impose additional taxes. On the other hand, this would further increase the misery of an already suffering population. Exports have fallen by 40 per cent, while industries are either struggling or have closed.
At the same time, pressure is building from all sides. Ukrainians have shown resilience and managed their resources despite the enormous challenges. The nation has experienced suffering and pain during the First and Second World Wars, and the current conflict is equally torturous. There is now a shortage of young men available for combat. The former defence minister has reportedly called for compulsory enlistment of women, a proposal that is being resisted by many Ukrainians. There are also reports that Ukraine has inducted mercenaries to fight the war.
Elections in Russia: President Vladimir Putin has declared that the upcoming election will strengthen the government and ensure stability. He has also said that the more territory Ukraine loses, the more destructive its actions will become. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has described Zelenskyy as having turned Ukraine into a failed state.
With economic disaster looming, Ukraine is becoming increasingly dependent on Europe. The possibility of new elections has also emerged following US feelers, but Ukrainian opposition leaders have opposed the proposal. Under martial law, elections cannot currently be held. Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, activists and other political elements have also expressed reservations about holding elections during the war.
With a large portion of its territory lost, an immense economic crunch and a shortage of young men available to fight, internal pressure on Ukraine is mounting. The European Union itself is facing the threat of recession amid the broader global economic pressures, sanctions on Russian oil and gas, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Additional economic sanctions by the United States could further strain not only the EU but the global economy. As the European economy weakens, financial assistance to Ukraine could also decline. Yet the EU has recently announced a further €61 billion in assistance to Ukraine.
The emerging scenario is a nightmare for Zelenskyy. Following the draft proposal, the Ukrainian government stepped up its mobilization efforts, but pressure from civil society and resistance to the move are mounting. According to Western journalists, attempts to enlist women against their will could lead to extremely harsh mobilization measures. Civilian resistance to the move is growing.
In response to Russian attacks, Kyiv has also intensified attacks on targets in Russia. Ukrainian political analyst Yuri has described the development as being fuelled by Russophobia and hatred. Meanwhile, the growing economic recession in Ukraine is gripping households already devastated by the war. Agriculture and industrial infrastructure have suffered massive destruction.
In practical military terms, the Ukraine war may have reached its decisive stage, but Zelenskyy is likely to prolong it because his political survival is tied to the continuation of the conflict. Ukraine today is a skeleton of its former self: cities and towns are increasingly empty, while agricultural land has been scorched. The budget deficit is increasing because of multiple factors, including the war, economic recession, infrastructure destruction, electricity shortages, gas and water shortages, and corruption.
With more than a million people reportedly dead, Slavic blood is being spilled at the altar of strategic calculations and what some perceive as EU and US efforts to weaken Russia. The United States, according to this argument, wants to keep the Ukraine war going not only to weaken Russia but also to keep it away from the wider Middle Eastern conflict and the growing spectre of an Israeli-Turkish confrontation. If such a conflict occurs, it could become a catastrophic strategic mistake for Israel. Any Israeli-Turkish escalation could also affect Pakistan and Saudi Arabia because of their strategic and diplomatic interests in the region. Geopolitics hinges on geography. Countries can switch allies and change alliances, but they cannot change their geography. Ukraine’s dilemma is fundamentally geographical. Sandwiched between Russia and Europe, with vast natural resources, mineral wealth, advanced technological capabilities and extensive agricultural land, Ukraine has become a magnet for major powers.
For Russia, Ukraine lies within its traditional sphere of influence, and Moscow is unlikely to accept the expansion of European influence to its doorstep. The United States, meanwhile, has an interest in Ukraine’s rare-earth minerals and in maintaining a strategic foothold near Russia. The stakes are therefore extremely high for all sides.
Yet many defence analysts argue that Ukraine has already lost the war militarily. Any prolongation of the conflict will only deepen its economic and human suffering.
The Ukraine-Russia war also offers important lessons for Pakistan. There are several dimensions to consider. First, the art of warfare has changed. Pakistan is observing these developments, but they require constant monitoring. Second, geography is critical. Pakistan sits at a strategic crossroads, surrounded by three nuclear powers — Russia, China and India. Because of its strategic location, Pakistan is extremely important to all three and cannot be ignored in any strategic, diplomatic or regional architecture.
Third, Pakistan’s resources, military strength and status as a Muslim nuclear power make it strategically formidable. Fourth, Pakistan’s unique position allows it to articulate a defensive and diplomatic architecture for West Asia. This requires a politically strong government capable of effectively countering regional and global pressures.
—The author is a decorated brigadier with 32 years of combat service and 31 years in the corporate sector.
