WITH Southeast Asia emerging as a strategic focus for both the US and China, the year 2024 dawned in an environment of escalating tensions in the South China Sea, a situation which if not managed can spiral out of control. The South China Sea represents a nexus of geopolitical intricacy and intensified rivalry and is emerging as a pivotal region, drawing the attention of major global players eager to engage more with ASEAN nations.
Historical complexities concerning the South China Sea have roots going back many centuries. Various regional powers, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan, contend for sovereignty over diverse islands and reefs. This competition has created a complex tapestry of disputes intertwining historical interpretations, national self-esteem, and tactical advantages. The conflict among the five has remained unresolved for decades. The claimant states have divergent and sometimes overlapping territorial claims based on a variety of historical and geographical data.
In recent years, the geopolitics of the South China Sea dispute have become more pronounced as Beijing has pressed its claims more vigorously and ties between Manila and Washington have strengthened. The participation of significant global powers like the United States adds additional dimensions to this multifaceted issue. With increasing China-US competition for enhanced geostrategic and geo-economic influence in key areas around the world, the possibility of these tensions eventually engulfing South Asia region cannot be ruled out.
Beijing is intensifying its diplomatic efforts to retain its influence in the region and prevent Southeast Asian nations from aligning too closely with the United States. In this regard, the Chinese government published an updated territorial map, in which the Nine-dash line, which marks the China’s territorial waters to become a “Ten-dash line”. China’s claims are challenged by some other claimant countries in the South China Sea, with the Philippines and Japan taking a particularly insistent stance over the past year. The recent tensions between China and the Philippines have further aggravated the situation sparking fear of heightened tensions leading to conflict as it may bring the US and China both stepping forward to prevent their interests.
The US has firmly put its support behind the Philippines and Japan with Biden stating that defence of these two Southeast Asian nations was ‘ironclad’ against any Chinese provocations. Further emphasizing that, any attack on Philippine aircraft, vessels or armed forces in the South China Sea would invoke the 70 years old mutual defence treaty. Biden’s forceful reinforcement of the American commitment comes as persistent skirmishes between the Philippine and Chinese coast guards in the disputed South China Sea continue. Relations between China and the Philippines have been repeatedly tested by confrontations involving the two nations’ coast guard vessels in the disputed South China Sea.
In the backdrop of the escalating situation in the South China Sea, the recent holding of the first tri-lateral summit in Washington with Japan and the Philippines, is being viewed as a potent response to China’s attempt, at what US considers, “intimidation” of its smaller neighbours in the region. The tri-lateral Summit was aimed at sending a clear signal that the US remains determined to build what it calls a “latticework” of alliances in the Asia Pacific even though it is grappling with other difficult issue like the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict.
In an ominous statement Biden announced that the three nations, U.S., Japan and the Philippines, were launching a new economic corridor in the Philippines as part of the G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment adding that the leaders were forging a “new era” and predicted “a great deal of history in our world will be written in the Indo-Pacific in the coming years.” the Pentagon had earlier announced that the U.S., the U.K. and Australia were considering including Japan in the AUKUS partnership, a grouping launched in 2021 that aims to equip Australia with nuclear-powered and conventionally armed submarines in an effort to challenge China in the Pacific Region.
Recent Taiwan elections represent another layer of worry for Beijing and the region. Although separatist party’s candidate faced a tough challenge from the opposition parties, it was able to win elections with the US and the West fully supporting them. Similarly Vietnam, a nation whose promising market has become a magnet for investment from countries seeking to diversify their value chains, particularly those seeking to reduce over-reliance on China, is also carefully weighing all options. Biden’s recent visit to Vietnam was part of the US charm offensive to reinforce ties with Pacific partners. The US and Vietnam elevated their relations to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, a culmination of years of progressively deepening cooperation in both economic and military realms.
China does not approve of Washington’s efforts to increase its influence in the region as Beijing remains Vietnam’s crucial strategic partner. Beijing retains its position as Vietnam’s largest trading partner, and the two nations have committed to forging a “China-Vietnam Community with a shared future.” While the US is making strides, it remains to be seen how quickly it can replace China, if at all. Due to a number of economic, trade and investment interests, Vietnam may not currently pose major problems but Beijing will need considerable efforts to retain such a crucial ally close.
The South China Sea looks set to take centre stage in the strategic landscape of 2024, emphasizing the region’s increasing significance in international politics. Abundant in fishery resources, it accounts for approximately 12% of the world’s total fish catch, its untapped reserves of oil and natural gas are significant, estimated to contain around 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. These resources contribute to the wealth and potential economic growth of bordering nations.
The South China Sea’s strategic importance also extends to international commerce, acting as an essential conduit that accommodates over one-third of global maritime traffic. It is a critical passage for trade, carrying goods valued at over $3 trillion annually and connecting major economies in Asia with markets in Europe, Africa and the Americas. Consequently, the South China Sea becomes a central stage for competing territorial demands and intersecting maritime jurisdictions, underlining its global economic significance.
As a result of this increased centrality, China will be faced with multiple challenges from a domestic economic revival to Taiwan, continued hostility from the West towards Beijing and potential complications in the South China Sea. The Philippines under the previous regime was inclined to accommodate Chinese interests but has since shifted gears and is strengthening military ties with Washington, making heightened U.S. presence in the South China Sea an undesirable setting for China.
For the US strategic and economic ties with Southeast Asia will be crucial in achieving de-risking and containment of China. For the regional countries it may be an opportunity to leverage their balancing role to gain economic and strategic benefits. A close evaluation of the evolving geopolitical currents provides valuable insights into the possible direction of disputes in the South China Sea. The rise of nationalism, the realignment of alliances, innovations in maritime technology, and shifts in the global economy are all critical components that will shape the region’s destiny in particular and the wider world in general. Although China remains undeterred, such offensive gesturing by the US only serve to raise tensions and flare up issues that have so far been managed by diplomacy by parties to the conflict. This is also a clear indication of the fears that the final battles for supremacy by the two powers would eventually be played out in the Asia-Pacific region.
—The writer is former Ambassador, based in Islamabad.
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